RAE BARELI- NEW HOT SEAT

RAHUL GANDHI: WAYANAD à RAE BARELI

 IN SEARCH OF A SAFER SECOND SEAT

'Arey daro mat, bhaago mat'

SARASIJ MAJUMDER

HISTORY:-

Congress leader Rahul Gandhi on Friday (May 3) filed his nomination from the Rae Bareli Lok Sabha seat, a constituency held by his mother Sonia for the past two decades. Over the years, the constituency has been a favourite location for the Gandhi-Nehru family to fight ELECTION.

It started with Mr. Feroz Gandhi—husband of IG. He won two consecutive times. Later IG, and till 2019—Sonia sought to be elected from this family Bastion. But the equation may be different this time with Rahul.

SOME DETAILS:-

RAE BARELI (G) /  UTTAR PRADESH. Last MP:SONIA GANDHI/INC (2019)

No of Assembly Constituencies:5. Bachharawan, Harchandpur,   Rae Bareli, Sareni, and Unchahar

 Polling Date: MAY 20, 2024.  Counting of votes : June 4th

Voter turnout:- 2019 - 56.34%|| 2014 - 51.73%|| 2009 - 48.33%||--

Sonia Gandhi from INC won the parliamentary elections in 2019 with a winning margin of 17.44%, defeating Dinesh Pratap Singh from BJP . INC and BJP polled a vote share of 55.8% and 38.36% respectively. In 2014, and 2009- Sonia Gandhi  won the elections from here.

STRIKE RATE:- VERY GOOD FOR DYNASTY. Only once IG was defeated.

INC won all times since 2004 elections by SONIA GANDHI till 2019.

RAHUL SAGA:-

Rahul Gandhi most probably wins the election in Raebareli. But filing nomination in Raebareli he has lost the race to PM. He has become a name etched in cowardice. He has been running from pillar to post since 2014, in search of a safe seat. Where he will stop nobody knows. Probably he himself have no idea. Everything in the case of Rahul is hush hush and secretive. Fear is forcing Rahul not to reveal his move.

 

Rahul may win Raebareli but at the cost of his personal reputation in the Organization, and in GATHBANDHAN. He has become a weakling for the entire Opposition.

THE ONLY EXPLANATION FOR WHY RAHUL GANDHI HAS DECIDED NOT TO CONTEST THE 2024 LOK SABHA ELECTION FROM AMETHI IS HE IS AFRAID OF BJP’S CANDIDATE SMRITI IRANI.

In the 2019 election also, Rahul Gandhi has decided to contest from two seats. He was contesting from Wayanad (Kerala) and Amethi (UP). But there is a difference this time. Last time, it was announced before polling in Amethi and Wayanad that Rahul Gandhi was contesting from both seats. This time, Rahul Gandhi didn’t announce his candidature from second seat, and may have decided on second seat,  till the election in Wayanad was over—and outcome seems QUESTIONABLE.

Three Gandhi family members Indira Gandhi (Raebareli - 1977), Sanjay Gandhi (Amethi - 1977), and Rahul Gandhi (Amethi - 2019) have lost elections. But Indira Gandhi and Sanjay Gandhi contested those same seats in the next election and won the seat in 1980. Sadly, Rahul Gandhi has left the field and ran away from Amethi. Rahul Gandhi is a big leader of the Congress party and he has the backing of the Samajwadi Party (which holds two assembly segments out of 5 assembly segments of Amethi Lok Sabha). The contest in Amethi would have been a mouth-watering election contest but Rahul Gandhi didn’t want to lose the election again. Rahul Gandhi has demonstrated that he is afraid of TOUGH election contests.

As per reports, Congress’s internal survey was showing that Raebareli is a safer seat for Rahul Gandhi and Rahul Gandhi chose the easy seat. This time Sonia Gandhi has decided not to contest the Raebareli seat and Rahul wants to contest the seat left by his mother.

THIS DECISION OF THE CONGRESS PARTY SHOWS THE POLITICAL STRENGTH OF SMRITI IRANI.

FORECAST:-

Raebareli is a relatively safe seat for Congress. Its ally SP had won 4 assembly seats (out of 5) in the last assembly election. BJP had won one seat and Congress has no MLA from Raebareli.  And so far,  this has been a traditional Nehru-Gandhi family bastion. But BJP’s Dinesh Pratap Singh is not a pushover also,  and BJP has inducted a popular SP MLA Manoj Pandey into its fold. Rahul Gandhi may well win the seat but this will not be easy. Last time Sonia Gandhi defeated Dinesh Pratap Singh by 1.67 Lakh votes.

VOTE SHARE:

2019	INC 55.8%	BJP 38.36%
2014	INC 63.8%	BJP 21.05%
2009	INC 72.23%	BSP 16.4%

 

If Rahul Gandhi was not keen, Congress may have given the ticket to Priyanka or Robert Vadra. Priyanka Gandhi would have been a good Congress candidate for Amethi. But it’s quite clear in the Gandhi family- Rahul Gandhi is the heir and Priyanka will always have to play the supporting role. In India and the Italian culture, a male child always gets preference over a female child. SO originally Italian- and converted Indian Sonia Gandhi has chosen her successor and that is Rahul Gandhi.  And she also doesn’t want to create a competitor of RAHUL—in the family itself. In case Rahul wins both seats, most likely he would vacate Raebareli. It will be interesting to see whether Priyanka will be given the ticket then or not.

The turning point of the 2019 Lok Sabha election was Rahul Gandhi’s decision to find a safe seat in down South with a sizable Muslim presence. Now Rahul Gandhi’s decision to leave Amethi for Raebareli (as the second safe seat) may be the turning point of the 2024 Lok Sabha election.

JAY SHREE RAM!

REFERENCES:- DATA—web site Chanakya.

Analysis, and Concussion—Blogger.

Others— from News Papers

EVERY INFORMATION IS AVAILABLE IN PUBLIC DOMAIN.

Image—Google.