SARASIJ

  ELECTION IN J&K A POLITICAL ANALYSIS SARASIJ MAJUMDER NC + INC +PDP National Conference has promised to restore Article 370 if they come to power though constitutionally that is not possible. Legislation ratified that, and review in SC agreed with that. It is now fool-proof. Senior Congress leader Ghulam Nabi Azad said that the Congress never demanded a reversal of the 5 August 2019 decision to revoke the special status of J&K. He also praised the administration of L-G Manoj Sinha, saying he “has done a very good job”. This can be a big boost to BJP’s campaign and trouble for Congress. Or congress is overconfident of not getting harmed by NC’s stance on article 370 abrogation because of BJP’s defeat in Ayodhya despite Ram Mandir ? Article 370 abrogation has been as important and emotional issue as Ram Mandir for Indians. In their brief press briefing earlier this week, on their first visit to

  2024 ELECTION: MY TAKE ROUTE MAP FOR FUTURE ELECTIONS SARASIJ MAJUMDER The hidden factor behind the recent election results in India is that however much caste is hyped and consolidation of the majority disturbed, the majority of the people have given a go bye to the same. The polarisation of the majority has happened as it happened in 2014, got consolidated in2019—and mostly retained in 2024 . BJP secured the 36.56% of votes which is short by ONLY 0.8% compared to  vote share of 2019. With some amount of incumbency of past 10 years, poor handling of Manipur, with non-contributing persons like Mr. Nadda, and   Amit Malviya, and some others-- -- BJP still has the ability to retain its vote share and will not allow the same to wither away, even in extreme circumstances. BJP polled 36.56% votes in 2024 against 37.77% votes   in 2019. Poor performance in two big states simultaneously was bound   affect the results treme

  :MAHARASHTRA: ASSEMBLY ELECTION PAST ANALYSIS|| FORECAST SARASIJ MAJUMDER     A. VOTE SHARE: PARLIAMENTARY ELECTION MARATHAS  -BJP+ : 46%      INC+ : 39% OBCs -              BJP+ : 50%     INC+ : 39% FCs -                 BJP+ : 58%        INC+ : 38% SCs -                 BJP+ : 35%         INC+ : 46% Muslims voted one sided for INC+ as per CSDS Post Poll Survey. Overall, INC+ got 43.71% vote share while BJP+ 43.55% vote share. Looking at the current situation of Maharashtra Assembly, the 'Mahayuti'  (MY) alliance has a total of 203 seats, including 103 seats of BJP, 40 seats of Ajit Pawar's NCP, 38 seats of Shinde faction's Shiv Sena. 14 independents along with five other parties are also with it. On the other hand, the MAHA VIKASH AGADHI   (MVA)has a total of 71 seats, in which Congress has 37 seats, Uddhav faction's Shiv Sena has 16 seats and Sharad Pawar's faction's NCP has 12 seats. Even if Ajit faction breaks away from B

  ELECTION—2024 FUTURE TENSE SARASIJ MAJUMDER I have been asked several questions in the social media, and over Phone about present election, after various Blogs on the same posted by me. I response as below:- 1.0. On low turnout of Voters:- I think—Opposition Parties used to spend money to buy votes—for obvious reasons, that amount has dried up, and so also number of   opposition voters. 2.0. I think, everybody now understand that it is MODI---3. The only issue is number of seats. Nobody has a Crystal Ball. I will go with prediction of Satta Bazar. 3.0 Weakness of BJP:- Maharashtra, and Bihar. In Maharashtra, breaking of NCP, and Shiv Sena was right Tactics. But Mr. Shinde is having too many seats he can manage. Some he will lose. Same with Mr. Nitish Kumar of Bihar. He is at the end of his popularity. BJP also may lose 4-5 seats combined, in Rajasthan and Gujarat. However—there will be reasonable compensations from elsewhere. 4.0 POST ELECTION:- 4.1 I think, N

  WEST BENGAL:-- ELECTION 2024 MUSLIM HEAVY CONSTITUENCIES AN INTERIM   REVIEW SARASIJ MAJUMDER   BACK GROUND:-   3/7 part of voting in West Bengal is   over. Disturbance is reported and EVM was mishandled in WEST BENGAL , as reported.   With 8/10 already in bag,  BJP is in QUITE   favourable position to win 29 seats in West Bengal, on strength of Hindu Majority, if, and only if—FAIR ELECTION,VOTING, AND Correct COUNTING and Posting is assured, and HINDU votes are secured. It requires only above average commitment by the complete team. Look at below the statistics of Muslim population in West Bengal. . Source:- WIKI In 1951, the Muslim Population in West Bengal was 51 Lakh. In 2011, it became 2 Crore 47 Lakhs in 60 Years as per census. . This may not completely include Migration from East Pakistan( 1951-1971), Bangladesh (1971 -2024) and all Rohingyas. Apart from that, we will review 8 (EIGHT) constituencies, where Muslim population is between 35%+ to    Maximum 64%

  COMPARISON BETWEEN 2014—2019—2024 HOW ELECTION ISSUES CHANGED SARASIJ MAJUMDER 2014: There was a huge wave in people wanting a change in GOVERNMENT. Gujarat C.M. Modi was P.M. face of B.J.P. and was new to National Politics. The NDA had fewer powerful allies. AAP was contesting elections from many seats. Modi faced scrutiny for the 2002 Gujarat riots. Parties were focused on their ideologies. Inflation was a very big topic. Opinion polls didn't clearly predict NDA's victory. The competition included Rahul, Mayawati, Mulayam, Mamata, etc. as p.m. FACE. Nationalism wasn't a major discussion. Congress's manifesto seemed in tune with Indian values. Many Muslims had negative views of Modi. UPA was suffering from Policy Paralysis. SCAMS were everywhere, though not fully exposed. RESULT BJP—Majority achieved. NDA Formed Government. 2019: There was minima

  RAE BARELI - NEW HOT SEAT RAHUL GANDHI: WAYANAD à RAE BARELI   IN SEARCH OF A SAFER SECOND SEAT ' Arey daro mat, bhaago mat' SARASIJ MAJUMDER HISTORY:- Congress leader Rahul Gandhi on Friday (May 3)  filed his nomination from the Rae Bareli Lok Sabha seat , a constituency held by his mother Sonia for the past two decades. Over the years, the constituency has been a favourite location for the Gandhi-Nehru family to fight ELECTION. It started with Mr. Feroz Gandhi—husband of IG. He won two consecutive times. Later IG, and till 2019—Sonia sought to be elected from this family Bastion. But the equation may be different this time with Rahul. SOME DETAILS :- RAE BARELI (G) /   UTTAR PRADESH. Last MP:SONIA GANDHI/INC (2019) No of Assembly Constituencies:5. Bachharawan, Harchandpur,    Rae Bareli, Sareni, and Unchahar   Polling Date: MAY 20, 2024.   Counting of votes : June 4th Voter turnout:- 2019 - 56.34%|| 2014 - 51.73%|| 2009 - 48.33%||-- Sonia Gandhi fro

  ELECTION-2024--AN APPEAL WHOM YOU WILL VOTE SARASIJ MAJUMDER The Lok Sabha comprises of a total of 545 seats. Out of these, elections will be conducted by the Election Commission to fill 543 seats. The remaining two seats are filled by nomination of representatives of the Anglo-Indian Community if the President feels that this community has not been represented adequately. THIS PROVISION SHALL BE WITHDRAWN IN THE NEXT PARLIAMENT SESSION. IT IS A BRITISH LEGACY. THERE IS A DIFFERENCE BETWEEN INDIAN CHRISTIAN, AND ANGLO INDIAN. PRESENT ELECTION SCENERIO:-- OPPOSITION Let me start with INC (Congress) and the number of seats the party can win. Congress cannot go beyond 35 seats. All other parties of INDI alliance will not cross 70 seats.   Most of these seats will be won from SOUTHERN INDIA. Together INDI alliance including INC may get == 105, + or - 5 seats. Other opposition parties not affiliated to INDI alliance may win about 40 seats. Therefore, the opposition to

  AMETHI & SMRITI IRANI-2024 RAHUL GANDHI ABONDONED AMETHI SARASIJ MAJUMDER FILING FOR NOMINATION AT AMETHI   CLOSED ON 3 rd MAY, AND VOTING WILL TAKE PLACE ON MAY 20. Last Time Winner SMRITI ZUBIN IRANI from BJP has already   filed her nomination. Kishori Lal Sharma, a trusted friend of the Gandhi family, is now the Congress candidate for Amethi. Rahul Gandhi is set to run from Raebareli, and not Amethi, where he faced a DEFEAT in 2019. In 2014 BJP ticked all the right boxes, when they selected IRANI for AMETHI. ✅ Known Candidate with reasonable all India exposure. ✅ TV personality ✅ Excellent Hindi orator ✅ Female ✅ Focus on development and growth. ·          Amethi has its own Caste and Muslim Equations . ·          But Whoever Wins from Amethi, one thing is Clear : Smriti Irani is a Fighter. She Did not Give up on Amethi even after Losing in 2014. ·          India has seen Politicians Neglecting their Constituencies , Treating them as their Per