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NEWS & VIEWS|||SARASIJ|||26/11/2025.

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NEWS & VIEWS|||SARASIJ|||26/11/2025. WEDNESDAY| VOL—IV/2025/NOVEMBER OPINIONATED, FOR FREE CIRCULATION. न गतं कर्तुं कश्चिद् धनवान् , परिश्रमेण तु भविष्यं लभ्यते। No one is rich enough to buy the past; but with effort, the future can be won. INDIA: (GOI, SWARAJYA, VISHWAMITRA, HINDU POST, INDIA TODAY). THIS DATE  A BLACK DAY FOR INDIA. 26/11 MUMBAI ATTACK HAPPENED THIS DAY, 2008.166 KILLED, OVER 300INJURED. The nation will celebrate Samvidhan Diwas today. The theme of this year’s celebration is Hamara Samvidhan-Hamara Swabhiman. The main k will be held in the Central Hall of Samvidhan Sadan in New Delhi. President Droupadi Murmu, Vice President C P Radhakrishnan, Prime Minister Narendra Modi, Lok Sabha Speaker Om Birla, Union Ministers and Members of Parliament will attend the event. PM Modi yesterday hoisted the DHARMA DHWAJA on the spire of Shri RAM JANMBHOOMI TEMPLE in Ayodhya, Uttar Pradesh. This marks the completion of the temple’s construction and the...
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BIHAR ASSEMBLY ELECTION –2025|||BULLETIN—1||12 OCT.2025

 

BIHAR ASSEMBLY ELECTION –2025

BULLETIN—1||12 OCT.2025

SARASIJ MAJUMDER



I was planning to cover this a little late, but one of my College Mate wanted  a First  Cut. I had to respect his wish.

This is the situation as of now:

1.0  Total Number of Seats under contest:- 243.

2.0  In the 243-member Bihar Assembly, the NDA currently holds 131 seats—BJP 80, JD(U) 45, HAM(S) 4, and support from two Independents—while the Opposition INDI--A bloc controls 111, led by RJD (77), followed by Congress (19), CPI(ML) (11), and CPI(M), CPI with two each.

3.0   The BJP and CM Nitish Kumar-led Janata Dal (United) are set to contest 101 seats each of the total 243 Assembly seats. Chirag Paswan-led LJP (Ram Vilas) are locked for 29 seats, followed by 6 seats each for Rashtriya Lok Morcha and Hindustani Awam Morcha.

4.0  Dynasty of RJD will meet Dynasty of Congress and will discuss sit sharing issue today at Delhi.

5.0  New Player will be  JAN SURAJ PARTY with PRASHANTKUMAR as leader. His party planned to contest on all seats. I think, his strategy is to make his party king maker.

6.0  Two main  rival groups are in the contest are—NDA,  and Mahagathbandan.

7.0  Seat sharing for Mahagathbandan   is not yet finalized, because CPI (ML), JMM and Congress want more seats than RJD intends to allot to them.

8.0  Selection of candidates are also not yet final—but my sources are of the opinion that both sides are willing to contest with last time winners, mostly.

9.0  Young Tejaswi is more favoured as CM face, than Veteran Nitish, but Nitish is second choice.

10.0          Once nominations are finalized, I will fine tune my forecast.

11.0          PK announced to fight against Tejaswi  from high-profile seat ‘Raghopur’-which has elected  two chief ministers--Lalu  and his Wife, at separate elections. I am waiting to see him file Nomination from there.

What Emerge:

An analysis of the five surveys reviewed by me, pointed to following factors that could explain this "paradox". The factors are:

  1. 1.      NDA's broader coalition is compensating for anti-incumbency against the Nitish government.
  2. 2.      Mahagathbandan leads amongst Muslim-Yadav and Scheduled Caste voters, while those from the Upper caste, NYOBC and EBC choose the NDA. Women are more in favour of NDA and Nitish.
  3. 3.      Opposition vote is splitting between Mahagathbandan (same as Indi-Pindi alliance) , Jan Suraj, and others.
  4. 4.      Some voters who may have personal disliking to the present government may still vote  the NDA due to caste/regional factors or no better alternative.
  5. 5.      Despite Tejaswi’s leadership, the RJD is still influenced by misdeeds of  Lalu Prasad Yadav and other family members, some of whom face legal challenges, including the ongoing ED probe in the land-for-jobs scam.
  6. 6.      सरकार ने कई नई मुफ्त योजनाओं (Free Schemes) की घोषणा की है, जिसमें महिलाओं के खातों में ₹10,000 की राशि भेजने की योजना सबसे ज्यादा चर्चा में है।This will surely help NDA.
  7. 7.      Tejashwi committed Government service of one member per family, if elected—anybody will see this is a ruse only.
  8. 8.      Internal family disputes often force Tejashwi to divert attention from party and alliance strategy to managing internal conflicts.
  9. 9.      NDA government led by CM Nitish Kumar is facing "some anti-incumbency" and yet, the BJP-JDU-HAM alliance leads with 41.3% vote share. This may increase with time.

I think, even if by a thin margin, Nitish  with NDA will have the Last Hurrah!!  

 

Surveys Reviewed:

1.0  C-Voter’s survey released last week.

2.0  JANSATTA, दैनिक जागरण.

3.0  Commentary of Pradeep Singh.

4.0  Informations collected from personal contacts of both the political alliances.

 

 

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