BIHAR ASSEMBLY ELECTION –2025
BULLETIN—1||12 OCT.2025
SARASIJ
MAJUMDER
I was planning to cover this a little
late, but one of my College Mate wanted
a First Cut. I had to respect his wish.
This is the situation as of now:
1.0
Total Number of Seats under contest:-
243.
2.0
In the 243-member Bihar Assembly, the
NDA currently holds 131 seats—BJP 80, JD(U) 45, HAM(S) 4, and support from two
Independents—while the Opposition INDI--A bloc controls 111, led by RJD (77),
followed by Congress (19), CPI(ML) (11), and CPI(M), CPI with two each.
3.0
The BJP and CM Nitish Kumar-led Janata Dal
(United) are set to contest 101 seats each of the total 243 Assembly seats. Chirag
Paswan-led LJP (Ram Vilas) are locked for 29 seats, followed by 6 seats each
for Rashtriya Lok Morcha and Hindustani Awam Morcha.
4.0
Dynasty of RJD will meet Dynasty of
Congress and will discuss sit sharing issue today at Delhi.
5.0
New Player will be JAN SURAJ PARTY with PRASHANTKUMAR as leader.
His party planned to contest on all seats. I think, his strategy is to
make his party king maker.
6.0
Two main rival groups are in the contest are—NDA, and Mahagathbandan.
7.0
Seat sharing for Mahagathbandan is not
yet finalized, because CPI (ML), JMM and Congress want more seats than RJD intends to
allot to them.
8.0
Selection of candidates are also not
yet final—but my sources are of the opinion that both sides are willing to
contest with last time winners, mostly.
9.0
Young Tejaswi is more favoured as CM
face, than Veteran Nitish, but Nitish is second choice.
10.0
Once nominations are finalized, I
will fine tune my forecast.
11.0
PK announced to fight against
Tejaswi from high-profile seat
‘Raghopur’-which has elected two chief
ministers--Lalu and his Wife, at separate
elections. I am waiting to see him file Nomination from there.
What
Emerge:
An analysis of the five surveys reviewed
by me, pointed to following factors that could explain this
"paradox". The factors are:
- 1. NDA's broader coalition is
compensating for anti-incumbency against the Nitish government.
- 2. Mahagathbandan leads amongst
Muslim-Yadav and Scheduled Caste voters, while those from the Upper caste,
NYOBC and EBC choose the NDA. Women are more in favour of NDA and Nitish.
- 3.
Opposition
vote is splitting between Mahagathbandan (same as Indi-Pindi alliance) , Jan Suraj, and others.
- 4.
Some
voters who may have personal disliking to the present government may still vote the NDA due to caste/regional factors or no better alternative.
- 5. Despite Tejaswi’s leadership, the
RJD is still influenced by misdeeds of Lalu Prasad Yadav and other family members,
some of whom face legal challenges, including the ongoing ED probe in the
land-for-jobs scam.
- 6.
सरकार ने कई नई मुफ्त योजनाओं (Free Schemes) की घोषणा की है, जिसमें महिलाओं
के खातों में ₹10,000 की राशि भेजने
की योजना सबसे ज्यादा चर्चा में है।This will surely help NDA.
- 7. Tejashwi committed Government service of one member per
family, if elected—anybody will see this is a ruse only.
- 8. Internal family disputes often force
Tejashwi to divert attention from party and alliance strategy to managing
internal conflicts.
- 9. NDA government led by CM Nitish
Kumar is facing "some anti-incumbency" and yet, the BJP-JDU-HAM
alliance leads with 41.3% vote share. This may increase with time.
I
think, even if by a thin margin, Nitish
with NDA will have the Last Hurrah!!
Surveys
Reviewed:
1.0 C-Voter’s survey released last week.
2.0
JANSATTA, दैनिक जागरण.
3.0 Commentary of Pradeep Singh.
4.0 Informations collected from personal
contacts of both the political alliances.
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