EXIT POLL: BENGAL-2026 SARASIJ MAJUMDER   PHASE:--1 One hundred and fifty-two constituencies ( 152) across 16 districts voted in the first phase of the West Bengal Assembly polls on April 23. 54 of these seats are spread across the region where Muslim population is quite sizeable. These seats, which are spread across the Murshidabad, Malda, Uttar Dinajpur, and Birbhum districts, Muslims overwhelmingly voted for the Trinamool Congress in 2021 — where TMC won in 49 compared to just five for the Bharatiya Janata Party. Muslims, also voted in large, very large number, this time, in my opinion,—to show their anger over SIR, which many of them were told as ‘Anti-Muslim Exercise’ by BJP. But—they always vote beyond 90%, hence additional effect will not be much. Five of these constituencies saw a very sharp rise in turnout from 2021. Raghunathganj in Murshidabad had the biggest jump, going from 76.4 to 96.9 per cent. Jangipur, also in Murshidabad, increased from 77.8 t...

  ELECTION WEST BENGAL—2026 SARASIJ MAJUMDER BAKGROUND DATA: 1.0 SIR removed 91 Lakh GHOST voters. Unfortunately—some genuine Matuas got inside the net.   Ignoring Matua voters—most of these GHOSTS were casting votes for TMC. 2.0 Election 2021: BJP Won 77 seats, and in 65 seats, they lost by a thin margin ; and in another 26 seats, they lost by a margin upto 11,000. If we superimpose SIR on these lost seats—BJP may win 77+65+26=168 seats. 3.0 Election 2024: BJP was ahead in 92 assembly constituencies. In 42 constituencies, they were behind within a margin upto 5,000; and in 32, within a margin upto 11,000. Again—if we apply SIR—the number is 166.   The result is fairly consistent, and data sources are listed below. Mr. Pranay Roy made a forecast of 150 seats in favour of BJP in a You Tube in circulation. Faludi Satta Bazar recently speaks about 180 in favour of BJP. TMC’S ELECTION GAME: If we review TMC’s election strategy, and execution—it is fairly simple....

  BENGAL ELECTION 2026||| PART II SARASIJ MAJUMDER     ELECTORAL MATHEMATICS is one aspect, and realizing that into political win is a different ball game, if opponent is TMC—who doesn’t play by rules—but announces—“KHELA HOBE”!!—which is nothing but BLOOD BATH!!. But—let us systematically review. POST POLL VIOLENCE: 300+ BJP workers were killed & 3,000 displaced, 90% IMMEDIATELY AFTER ELECTION OF 2021. Since 2021, political violence   continued in WB. It was alleged that Police remained on the side of TMC. Police started working for the Ruling Party since CPI(M) days—during TMC regime, they have become SLAVES of TMC. IPS cadres working in West Bengal are   a part of this SLAVE team. This has created a large-scale fear in the mind of BJP workers, who work at grassroot level. Key Decisions were delivered from Mamata Banerjee’s chambers. This rule of TMC TERROR has to be eliminated. NOW! DATA: 2024 ELECTION: Total Electorate:-- 7 Cror...

  SIR—WEST BENGAL WHAT IS REVEALED SARASIJ MAJUMDER In West Bengal, during the Special Intensive Revision (SIR) process, massive irregularities have been detected in the 2002 voter list during progeny-mapping or identification of new voters based on the names of parents or relatives. Although the first phase of the SIR has ended, the Election Commission continues to cross-check and repeatedly scrutinize the submitted forms. During this process, information about these “logical discrepancies” has come to light, according to data released by the office of the Chief Electoral Officer of the state.   1.0 Names of fathers of 85 lakhs 1thousand and 486 voters are incorrect or mismatched, which accounts for 11.09% of the total voters. 2.0   For 24lakhs 21thousand 133 voters, the number of children recorded is more than six. 3.0 Major inconsistencies have also been observed in the age differences between parents and children. In 11 lakh 95 thousand 230 cases, the age ...

  BENGAL ELECTION---2026 PRE DRAFT SIR SARASIJ MAJUMDER.   HOW MANY SEATS   BJP CAN WIN: ????  I confirm that the Election will be BI-POLAR. Even 5 seats may not be won by others. It will be mostly straight fight between BJP-- and TMC. This is my First Cut publication. Analysis I: Reference:-- 1.      2019 Parliament Election. 2.      2021 Assembly Election 3.      2024 Parliament Election. In parliament elections, we will consider the MLA constituencies, where BJP got lead. What Emerge: In 54 seats, BJP won all three Elections. In 38 seats, BJP won 2 of the 3 Elections In 50 seats, BJP won1 of the 3 Elections. Apart from above--in 31 seats, Muslim voter percentage   is less than 20 %. Hence—BJP can surely win 173 seats, if we apply this line of analysis.   Analysis II: Here, we consider late 2024 parliamentary election as our basis. From EC data, following emerg...