BENGAL ELECTION---2026 || PRE DRAFT SIR

 

BENGAL ELECTION---2026

PRE DRAFT SIR

SARASIJ MAJUMDER.

 

HOW MANY SEATS  BJP CAN WIN: ???? 

I confirm that the Election will be BI-POLAR. Even 5 seats may not be won by others.

It will be mostly straight fight between BJP-- and TMC.

This is my First Cut publication.

Analysis I: Reference:--

1.     2019 Parliament Election.

2.     2021 Assembly Election

3.     2024 Parliament Election.

In parliament elections, we will consider the MLA constituencies, where BJP got lead.

What Emerge:

In 54 seats, BJP won all three Elections.

In 38 seats, BJP won 2 of the 3 Elections

In 50 seats, BJP won1 of the 3 Elections.

Apart from above--in 31 seats, Muslim voter percentage  is less than 20 %.

Hence—BJP can surely win 173 seats, if we apply this line of analysis.

 Analysis II:

Here, we consider late 2024 parliamentary election as our basis.

From EC data, following emerge:

For this purpose, we split the MP constituencies in respective MLA constituencies, and notice that:

In 92 MLA constituencies, BJP is ahead with a margin of 5,000 or more votes.

In another 80 MLA constituencies, BJP lost by less than 20,000 Votes.

With SIR—already 56 Lakh false, dead or no form return voters are removed.

On a safe estimate, 20 Lakh may further be removed after verification.

So, on an average, 25,000 voters per constituency will be reduced. I agree, that somewhere it may be 5,000, and somewhere it may be 45,000.

But—it is in the air  that the removal is more in Muslim majority areas.

Hence—even on this approach—the possibility is that BJP can win 172 seats.

THERE IS ANALYSIS –III, considering only 2021 election result, and superimposing SIR effect. That also produced similar results.

Hence—as on today—I predict 170, +

Also—incumbency, Corruption will work against TMC, and there is positive BJP  wind—it is not storm, and it will not be with Secularist- Marxist- Le-Liberal influenced West Bengal.

Still—BJP can win this 2026 election.

Problem:-

1.0   The Election Machinery—i.e. Polling officers, Presiding Officers, and Observers—all are state government employees, and will be adequately ‘BRIBED’  by TMC, to influence the process.

2.0   The same can be said about state Police force.

3.0   CHAPPA VOTE, and TMC’s HARMAD gang will also be on rampage.

4.0   If TMC can get a free hand in about 20 booths in would be 100 close fought  MLA constituencies—the result will be different.

5.0   4 NEWSPAPERS of Calcutta will print strongest narratives against BJP.

6.0   Only Mithun by Road show, and Mr. Tathagata Roy will defend the narratives.

Solution:

At all costs, BJP has to PLUG these first four  ‘HOLES’ listed above. Best solution is to conduct the State Election  by imposing PRESIDENT’s RULE during  the Election Period. But, it will be very difficult, and INDI-PINDI alliance will make a big NOISE.

BJP has to promise to continue the ‘PUSTI VATA’  to women, etc., as being paid by TMC. But can stop any payment to CLUBS.

Incidentally—Phalodi Satta Bazar, as on today—predicted BJP win in West Bengal by comfortable margin.

 

References:-- 2019, 2021, & 2024 election data posted by EC. Analysis and conclusion is by BLOGGER.