EXIT POLL: BENGAL-2026

 

EXIT POLL: BENGAL-2026

SARASIJ MAJUMDER

 

PHASE:--1

One hundred and fifty-two constituencies ( 152) across 16 districts voted in the first phase of the West Bengal Assembly polls on April 23. 54 of these seats are spread across the region where Muslim population is quite sizeable.

These seats, which are spread across the Murshidabad, Malda, Uttar Dinajpur, and Birbhum districts, Muslims overwhelmingly voted for the Trinamool Congress in 2021 — where TMC won in 49 compared to just five for the Bharatiya Janata Party.

Muslims, also voted in large, very large number, this time, in my opinion,—to show their anger over SIR, which many of them were told as ‘Anti-Muslim Exercise’ by BJP. But—they always vote beyond 90%, hence additional effect will not be much.

Five of these constituencies saw a very sharp rise in turnout from 2021. Raghunathganj in Murshidabad had the biggest jump, going from 76.4 to 96.9 per cent. Jangipur, also in Murshidabad, increased from 77.8 to 95.7 per cent. Goalpokhar in Uttar Dinajpur rose from 71.9 to 91.7 per cent. Sagardighi and Samserganj, both in Murshidabad, also saw strong increases, with turnout crossing 95 per cent this year.

A similar trend was observed in Maldah. Almost all Muslim-majority seats saw strong turnout, mostly between 92 and 95 per cent. Seats like Chanchal (+15.3 per cent), Ratua (+16.2 per cent), Malatipur (+14.7 per cent), and Habibpur (+14.1 per cent) recorded large increases compared to 2021. Seats like English Bazar, Gazole, and Manikchak also saw double-digit jumps. In Birbhum, seats like Murarai (+13.3 per cent) and Rampurhat (+11 per cent) saw double-digit jumps.

Did Hindus—who were scared of coming out to vote earlier—did come out and  cast their votes in above constituencies this time.  Will it make difference ? We will only know on 4th May.

 

However, I am sure— 49 seats mentioned before, TMC will surely get. Congress is likely to get 4 seats, and other Muslim parties are likely to get 2 Seats. That makes 55 seats beyond BJP’s reach.

BJP is sure to win 60 seats. That leaves 152-115=37 seats to be decided by effects of SIR, HINDU Polarization,  increase in HINDU VOTES, etc all combined. If all these 37 seats goes to BJP—even then the number is 60+37=97. Difficult—but not  impossible, as indications and trend suggest.

Mr Adhikary said 125, and Mr. Shah said 110 seats BJP will get. They are having much better sources of  ground information, I agree.

 

PHASE :—2

Phase 2 covers 7 Districts, and 142 seats. This includes Presidency Division, and East Burdwan—which are advertised as Fortresses of TMC. East Burdwan has sizeable Muslim Population—may be close to 28% by now.

Nadia, North 24 Parganas, and Hooghly—these three districts have  68 seats, and BJP is likely to do quite well here. These are mainly Hindu majority districts. If EC can eliminate violence, and Threats spread by TMC GOONS, Hindus will vote in large number, and 40 seats are sure for BJP. EC proved that they  can control ‘CHAPPA VOTES’ in Phase-1.

2021 performance of BJP here was completely effected by large scale rigging, and terror caused  in this region by TMC, where BJP voters were scared to come out, and vote. Chappa Votes completed the rest.

Even in South 24 Parganas—BJP is in a position to fight very very  strongly in 9 seats, where TMC won only by a margin of less than 02 ~ 13%. One or two more  may be added to 9 numbers for BJP this time.

In Kolkata—Maniktala, Jorasanko, Shyampukur, Rasbihari and Bhowanipur shall be sure shot for BJP—if election is fair, and Hindus come out to vote. Contest will be in Kashipur-Belghachia , with BJP being favourite. Rest will go to TMC.

There are 16 Constituencies in Howrah, where  TMC won by thin margins (3,500 to 15,000) in 10 seats.  Safely I can consider these seats for BJP.

In Muslim dominated East Burdwan—Let us assume BJP will get 5 seats based on past performance, and SIR. Actually—this can be improved!

Even then, in Phase -2, BJP is likely to get 40+10+5+10+5==70 seats.

I don’t think—this number can go below 65.

If the information is correct, close to 1 Crore  (70Lakh recorded) migrant labourers may have returned to WEST BENGAL to cast their votes! Majority of those votes are BJP bound.

Mr Adhikari may win from both the seats.

So, on combined phase—I predict, BJP will get 95 +65=160 Seats as minimum. It may go up to 180 even, as predicted by PHALODHI SATTA BAZAR.

For the last 47 years, West Bengal didn’t produce ‘FRACTURED VERDICT’, which was a possibility in 2021, had that Election been ‘FAIR’. I rule out that  possibility this time.

JAYA BHARAT! JAY SANATAN DHARMA!!

Disclaimer: This is an attempted forecast only. There could be mistakes in analysis. Personal bias is attempted to be suppressed.