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EXIT POLL: BENGAL-2026

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  EXIT POLL: BENGAL-2026 SARASIJ MAJUMDER   PHASE:--1 One hundred and fifty-two constituencies ( 152) across 16 districts voted in the first phase of the West Bengal Assembly polls on April 23. 54 of these seats are spread across the region where Muslim population is quite sizeable. These seats, which are spread across the Murshidabad, Malda, Uttar Dinajpur, and Birbhum districts, Muslims overwhelmingly voted for the Trinamool Congress in 2021 — where TMC won in 49 compared to just five for the Bharatiya Janata Party. Muslims, also voted in large, very large number, this time, in my opinion,—to show their anger over SIR, which many of them were told as ‘Anti-Muslim Exercise’ by BJP. But—they always vote beyond 90%, hence additional effect will not be much. Five of these constituencies saw a very sharp rise in turnout from 2021. Raghunathganj in Murshidabad had the biggest jump, going from 76.4 to 96.9 per cent. Jangipur, also in Murshidabad, increased from 77.8 t...
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ASSEMBLY ELECTION IN INDIA

A CASE STUDY:- TIJARA, RAJASTHAN

SARASIJ MAJUMDER

Tijara, situated within the Alwar district of Rajasthan, is a town that predominantly encompasses rural areas. This constituency places a significant emphasis on agricultural and rural development. Tijara serves as both a city and a municipality in the Khairthal-Tijara district of the Indian state of Rajasthan. Over the years, Tijara, a legislative assembly constituency in Rajasthan, has witnessed fascinating electoral contests. In the 2023 elections, Tijara, has   a total of 2,60,000 eligible voters approximately.

Election took place on 25th November, and result will be available on 3rd December

Out of this, 2,20,000 votes have casted their votes. It is learned that mostly HINDU votes are the UN-CASTED votes.

MAIN CONTESTENTS ARE:-

Candidate Name

Party Name

Imran Khan

Congress

Baba Balakanth, MP

BJP

 

The Distribution of VOTERS, Sex wise, as follows:-

MALE:--1,35,000 app.  Balance Female.

Age wise: 20% are young, 50% are middle aged, rest is Senior Citizen.

Here, Hindu, and Muslim Polarization happened, and will decide the WINNER.

Cast Wise:-

1.0 There is hardly any MINA settled here.

2.0 There are about 17,000 GURJAR VOTES,10,000 of which is expected to go to BJP. Gurjars has set up a GURJAR candidate, who is likely to secure about 7,000 votes. They divided themselves , and may have lost any bargaining power.

3.0 There are about 50,000+ YADAV votes, all of which will  also be casted in favour of BJP.

4.0 There are about 95,000 MUSLIM votes, completely POLARISED, and will go to CONGRESS—lock-stock- and barrel, all complete.

5.0 There are about 50,000 SC/ST votes. There seems to be an understanding with Sushree Mayavati. It is expected,  most of it will go to BJP.

6.0 There are large number of educated URBAN residents in various SOCIETY BUILDINGS, and FLATS—the number is about 20,000—and most of it will go to BJP.

7.0 I.N.D.I.A. has put an SP candidate to divide Hindu votes. 

The vote here will be mostly decided as above. Hence,  if you do the ARITHMATICS BJP is most likely to win  this assembly seat with a thin margin, if SC/ST remain faithful to the commitment to BJP.

I am living here for the last 6 years, and remains SOCIALLY quite active. Spent sometime in the various booths. Got the feelings, and collected  inputs later.

The above is purely my personal opinion, shared as information.

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