EMERGING INDIA
2035
AN ANALITICAL
FORECAST
SARASIJ
MAJUMDER
If
you presently talk of SUPER POWERS, only two
names emerge undisputedly: America and China. They are presently engaged
in all kinds of WAR without using ARMS. In this war of Nerves, Geo influence, and Capital…, South China Sea,
and QUAD are major factors. India is involved in both, with USA, against CHINA.
Geopolitical
rivalry between America and China is nearing its peak.. There is a fierce economic
war going on between the two countries . USA wants to retain its position it is
used to, after second World War, and fall of British Empire. China wants to dislodge it. America has not
only blocked China's access to advanced semiconductor technology, but has also
imposed manifold tariffs on many of its products, so that it cannot have free sell. USA wants to keep China entangled in as many
places as possible.
In 2024, the United States had the largest economy
in the world, with a gross domestic product of just under 29 trillion U.S.
dollars. China had the second largest economy, at around 18.5 trillion
U.S. dollars.
However—on Equity Market Valuation—China is much behind.
The
emerging Super Power is obviously ‘INDIA’—if India can manage its internal
political conflicts. Economy is no problem now—unless it is fiddled too much.
Very soon it will achieve a little distant third (3rd ) spot in GDP
behind CHINA, and America. I
HAVE GONE THROUGH ESTIMATES OF IMF, WORLD BANK,
AND CIA. The data is available in
public domain.
As
of 2024, India's GDP rank is 5th in the world by nominal GDP and 3rd by
purchasing power parity (PPP). The figures are :- $3.95 trillion (GDP nominal; 2024 est.), $14.59 trillion (PPP; 2024 est.)
After
‘GLOSNOST’ and ‘PERISTROIKA’—USSR became Russia with VETO power—but loosing
most of its Global Relevance. It’s
budget for Space Technology reduced, but it is well invested in Military
technology.-GDP has come down. Prolonged war with Ukraine, which is being
fought by Body of Ukraine and Military
Power of NATO has made Russia economically weak, and increasingly dependent on
CHINA. It’s world power status is lost.
In
the EMERGING SECTOR--BRAZIL, and INDONASIA will never become super power in the
near future, because of their technological weakness. They are far behind in
Space Technology, and Military Technology. Their manufacturing sector is also weak. These are pre-requisite to become superpower.
In terms of GDP—they are far behind.
Australia,
and South Africa are not even in the race.
Now
let us discuss about two super powers of Yesteryears who are still
strong—Germany, and Japan. They tick almost all the boxes, except two VITAL
Criteria:-- Large number of Productive
Population, and Landmass. Because of
these two—they are behind the race, and
will remain so.
Hence,
India will soon achieve the third position, and it will be difficult to
dislodge it from there.
Tony
Blair said, International Monetary Fund and World Economy Forum also estimated
that by the end of this decade, India will become the third largest economy in
the world. Only America and China will be ahead of that.
Afghanistan
was America’s recent WATERLOO. GAZA --HAMAS - IRAN—HEZBOLLA -- will tie down
USA. But, USA has lots of FRIENDS.
UKRAINE
has tied down Russia.
China
is busy forming an alliance, and never had any useful alliance except RUSSIA,
who has become more of a LIABILITY . Sino-alliances are weaklings!
INDIA
ENJOYS FRIENDLY RELATIONSHIP WITH USA, RUSSIA, ISRAEL---to name the most important
ones—apart from others. If India can play its diplomatic cards well—we will
remain on strong footing.
IN
MY OPINION—NEXT DECADE IS INDIA’S DECADE—UNLESS INTERNAL POLITICAL SITUATION
GETS DISTURBED.
Source:-- All informations are in Public Domain. Analysis, and conclusion is by Blogger.
Next decade is India's decade will not doubt be so. However,I like to point out that whereas the economics mo.del adopted by us is based on the one used by South Korea in 1960s by selecting some business players who are performing with economy performing on behest of a certain few without active participation of masses, art of whom are engaged as retail investors, the potential of research and innovation is not being utilised as those youngsters who are cream of available highly qualified ones are not being engaged into useful innovative research. Window of youth of population is available only for less than next twenty years. Conserving talent and it's right use is important.
ReplyDeleteYOUR POINT IS VALID. THANKS.
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