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‘AGNIKANYA’ : NIGHT BEFORE IMMERSION

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  ‘AGNIKANYA’ : NIGHT BEFORE IMMERSION SARASIJ MAJUMDER The last night vigil will end on 4 th morning! The fear of defeat was starkly visible on her face. Her body had slumped. Black patches encircled the socketed eyes. The look is forlorn! The journey that started at Lalgarh, and followed by   a mock ‘HUNGER STRIKE’ at SINGOOR, more than 15 years ago, eating Chocolates, Chicken Sandwiches secretly and finally betraying Chatradhar Mahato—will end this night. The farewell bell has tolled on 29 th April at dusk from Bhowanipur. She could not articulate any concrete complaints; merely mumbled a few vague apprehensions. Supreme Court has dismissed her PLEA on Sunday. Her staunch party supporters, also some Secularists, CPI(M), and ‘LE-LI-BERALS’ had expected that, perhaps on the last night, she would pull off some "out-of-the-box" maneuver—a ‘VOODOO’ aka P.C.Sirkar. But nothing of the sort occurred. The reason? No new script came to that evil mind. The ‘Magic Wand’ lo...
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ASSEMBLY ELECTION MP 2023

SARASIJ MAJUMDER

DATA:--

1.0 Chief Election Commissioner Rajiv Kumar said that there are 5.6 crore voters in 230 constituencies of Madhya Pradesh. Of these, 2.88 crore are male voters and 2.72 crore are female voters. A total of 22.36 lakh youths will be voting for the first time.

2.0 Last Election—BJP:128 Seats, INC: 97 seats. This time also it is a fight between BJP and INC.

3.0 NOVEMBER 17, 2023.Voter turnout at 71.16% by 5 p.m. Female voters stood at 71.14% and male voters at 71.19%.

4.0 MUSLIM VOTERS: Total Muslim Votes are about 40 Lakhs. They will vote for Congress, but it will not have any impact on result.

GROUND REALITIES:-

1.0 Fight used to be close, when SCINDIA was in CONGRESS.  Now Scindia is in BJP, Congress has lost at least 10% support.

2.0 At least in 20 Constituencies, SCINDIA RULES. May be more.

3.0 Congress couldn’t stich  an alliance with SP—and Akhilesh put up 40+ candidates.

4.0 Another I.N.D.I.A. ally AAP is contesting in 70+ seats. JD(U) in 10 seats.

5.0 3.0 & 4.0 together will cut opposition votes. INC will contest not only against BJP, but also against I.N.D.I.A. partners in 92 seats. Even if they cut 4% Votes, Congress will fall below 80 seats. The DIFFERENCE will mostly add to BJP’s tally.

6.0 Congress election has been steered by SCINDIA for quite some time. Lack of availability of his services now will be a HADICAP. Party’s election machinery can’t be overhauled so soon.

7.0 In the last election the difference of votes between BJP and Congress has been 1%. This 1% difference may balloon to 5+%  in favour of BJP because of the reasons explained above.

WHAT EMERGES:--

It is not understood how most of the opinion poll predicts Photo Finish, or Congress Majority. My assessment is BJP win, however thin the margin be.

Source:-

1.0 Data: EC.

2.0 Above is solely blogger’s opinion.

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