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POLITICAL ENGINEERING ON TMC

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  POLITICAL ENGINEERING ON TMC SARASIJ MAJUMDER.   TMC’S POLITICAL ASSETS: I only consider Parliament, Rajya Sava, and Bengal Bidhan Sava for discussion: In Parliament, TMC had 29 elected members, out of which 22 have deserted from TMC, and joined NCPI, having a registered office in SANKRAIL, HOWRAH, WEST BENGAL. Leader elected of NCPI in Parliament is Kakoli Ghosh Dastidar, who was elected as president of NCPI also. Veteran, and a known MAMATA LOYALIST Sudip Babu is also a part of this group. They will   most likely be a part of NDA—somebody may   become Minister. Refer TAG-A below, which paved the way for this. There are 3 Muslim MPs in this group. This Rebel MP chapter seems now is closed out. But, number of members may increase with time. However—they have forfeited their CLAIM on TMC Party Symbol, TMC Party’s Name etc. after MERGER. MY FORECAST: Almost none of them will be absorbed in BJP, and at least 18 of them will   not become MP again from Ben...
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ASSEMBLY ELECTION MP 2023

SARASIJ MAJUMDER

DATA:--

1.0 Chief Election Commissioner Rajiv Kumar said that there are 5.6 crore voters in 230 constituencies of Madhya Pradesh. Of these, 2.88 crore are male voters and 2.72 crore are female voters. A total of 22.36 lakh youths will be voting for the first time.

2.0 Last Election—BJP:128 Seats, INC: 97 seats. This time also it is a fight between BJP and INC.

3.0 NOVEMBER 17, 2023.Voter turnout at 71.16% by 5 p.m. Female voters stood at 71.14% and male voters at 71.19%.

4.0 MUSLIM VOTERS: Total Muslim Votes are about 40 Lakhs. They will vote for Congress, but it will not have any impact on result.

GROUND REALITIES:-

1.0 Fight used to be close, when SCINDIA was in CONGRESS.  Now Scindia is in BJP, Congress has lost at least 10% support.

2.0 At least in 20 Constituencies, SCINDIA RULES. May be more.

3.0 Congress couldn’t stich  an alliance with SP—and Akhilesh put up 40+ candidates.

4.0 Another I.N.D.I.A. ally AAP is contesting in 70+ seats. JD(U) in 10 seats.

5.0 3.0 & 4.0 together will cut opposition votes. INC will contest not only against BJP, but also against I.N.D.I.A. partners in 92 seats. Even if they cut 4% Votes, Congress will fall below 80 seats. The DIFFERENCE will mostly add to BJP’s tally.

6.0 Congress election has been steered by SCINDIA for quite some time. Lack of availability of his services now will be a HADICAP. Party’s election machinery can’t be overhauled so soon.

7.0 In the last election the difference of votes between BJP and Congress has been 1%. This 1% difference may balloon to 5+%  in favour of BJP because of the reasons explained above.

WHAT EMERGES:--

It is not understood how most of the opinion poll predicts Photo Finish, or Congress Majority. My assessment is BJP win, however thin the margin be.

Source:-

1.0 Data: EC.

2.0 Above is solely blogger’s opinion.

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