THE LESSONS OF 2004 ELECTION
HOW,
and WHY BJP LOST
SARASIJ MAJUMDER
“Those who cannot
remember the past are condemned to repeat it.” – George
Santayana, The Life of Reason, 1905.
.
- In 2004 election, BJP won 138 seats and Congress
won 145 seats. The difference was just 7 seats but Congress won the
psychological & electoral battle. UPA was formed soon after the 2004 Indian general election
when no party had won a majority. The then RULING Bhartiya Janata
Party-led National Democratic Alliance (NDA) won 181 seats of
544, as opposed to the UPA's tally of 218 seats.
- The Left Front with 59 MPs (excluding the speaker
of the Lok Sabha), the Samajwadi Party with 39 MPs and the Bahujan Samaj
Party with 19 MPs were other significant Parties that supported UPA to
form a Minority Government and supported it at various times in PARLIAMENT.
Dr. Manmohan Singh was the P.M. by choice to by-pass an inner struggle in
Congress.
- Let us review the causes which lead to NDA’s defeat
in 2004 Election.
- BJP got stuck on Sonia's foreign origin issue
whereas India had moved beyond it much before.
- BJP was overconfident and they were not able to see
the undercurrent, and incumbency working against them. The “India Shining”
campaign turned out to be disastrous. NDA leaders didn't show much respect
for opposition party and its leaders.
- BJP fared very badly in selecting allies. Its
alliance with AIADMK failed to win a single seat in Tamil Nadu. DMK had
dumped BJP for Congress just before the election.
- The magic of Chandrababu Naidu faded completely and
Congress won 30+ LS seats from AP alone. It was said that it was TDP chief
who blackmailed/persuaded BJP top brass for holding an early election.
- Congress + RJD + LJP proved to be too formidable an
alliance against BJP + JDU in
Bihar. Even Nitish Kumar lost his own parliamentary seat. LJP had switched
the side a few months before the election.
- The
opposition alliance humiliated BJP in Jharkhand also.
- BJP lost Delhi very badly. They managed a
respectable show only in MP &
Rajasthan.
- BJP was reduced to number 3 in most populous state
of UP with SP winning close to 35 seats. Many big BJP leaders like Murli
Manohar Joshi, Vinay Katiyar etc. lost their seats.
- Congress + NCP were able to held ground against BJP
+ Shiv Sena in Maharashtra.
- Even in
Modi's Gujarat, Congress managed to win 12 LS seats.
- Left front fared very well in 2004 election and
they managed to win 60 seats (their
best tally in most of Elections). They swept all seats in Kerala and
performed very well in West Bengal.
- The 2002 Gujarat riots proved to be final coffin of
NDA. The tapes and photos of the riots were played again and again in minority dominated areas. This
paved way for consolidation, and tactical voting by minority community
against BJP.
THE LESSONS SHALL NOT BE FORGOTTEN, WHILE CHALKING OUT 2024
ELECTION STRATEGY...
Reference:
1.0 DATA--GOI publications.
2.0 Digital copies of 2004 editions of HT- Around
Election issues.
3.0 PHOTO-- ABP
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