THE LESSONS OF 2004 ELECTION

HOW, and WHY BJP LOST

SARASIJ MAJUMDER

“Those who cannot remember the past are condemned to repeat it.” – George Santayana, The Life of Reason, 1905.

.

  1. In 2004 election, BJP won 138 seats and Congress won 145 seats. The difference was just 7 seats but Congress won the psychological & electoral battle. UPA was formed soon after the 2004 Indian general election when no party had won a majority. The then RULING Bhartiya Janata Party-led National Democratic Alliance (NDA) won 181 seats of 544, as opposed to the UPA's tally of 218 seats.
  2. The Left Front with 59 MPs (excluding the speaker of the Lok Sabha), the Samajwadi Party with 39 MPs and the Bahujan Samaj Party with 19 MPs were other significant Parties that supported UPA to form a Minority Government and supported it at various times in PARLIAMENT. Dr. Manmohan Singh was the P.M. by choice to by-pass an inner struggle in Congress.
  3. Let us review the causes which lead to NDA’s defeat in 2004 Election.
  4. BJP got stuck on Sonia's foreign origin issue whereas India had moved beyond it much before.
  5. BJP was overconfident and they were not able to see the undercurrent, and incumbency working against them. The “India Shining” campaign turned out to be disastrous. NDA leaders didn't show much respect for opposition party and its leaders.
  6. BJP fared  very badly in selecting allies. Its alliance with AIADMK failed to win a single seat in Tamil Nadu. DMK had dumped BJP for Congress just before the election.
  7. The magic of Chandrababu Naidu faded completely and Congress won 30+ LS seats from AP alone. It was said that it was TDP chief who blackmailed/persuaded BJP top brass for holding an early election.
  8. Congress + RJD + LJP proved to be too formidable an alliance  against BJP + JDU in Bihar. Even Nitish Kumar lost his own parliamentary seat. LJP had switched the side a few months before the election.
  9.  The opposition alliance humiliated BJP in Jharkhand also.
  10. BJP lost Delhi very badly. They managed a respectable show only in MP  & Rajasthan.
  11. BJP was reduced to number 3 in most populous state of UP with SP winning close to 35 seats. Many big BJP leaders like Murli Manohar Joshi, Vinay Katiyar etc. lost their seats.
  12. Congress + NCP were able to held ground against BJP + Shiv Sena in Maharashtra.
  13.  Even in Modi's Gujarat, Congress managed to win 12 LS seats.
  14. Left front fared very well in 2004 election and they managed to win  60 seats (their best tally in most of Elections). They swept all seats in Kerala and performed very well in West Bengal.
  15. The 2002 Gujarat riots proved to be final coffin of NDA. The tapes and photos of the riots were played again and  again in minority dominated areas. This paved way for consolidation, and tactical voting by minority community against BJP.

THE LESSONS SHALL NOT BE FORGOTTEN, WHILE CHALKING OUT 2024 ELECTION STRATEGY...

Reference:

1.0 DATA--GOI publications.

2.0   Digital copies of 2004 editions of HT- Around Election issues.

3.0 PHOTO-- ABP

 

 

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