DID QATER BLACKMAILED INDIA??
SARASIJ MAJUMDER
( Engineer—Worked in OFFSHORE OIL & GAS division of EIL )
No sooner than eight Navy veterans released, and landed in
INDIA, the Tooth, and Claws of paid
Media is out to attack NDA. They started braying that India has been
blackmailed by Qatar. The accusation is that Qatar forced New Delhi to sign an
expensive LNG deal through PETRONET, in exchange of the release of our Navy
personnel.
A LIE being planted
in the mind of common people, and this accusation is totally mis-representation of fact.
But, before discussing the deal, let us discuss a bit about
LNG (Liquified Natural gas), and India’s requirement.
Technology and Use
We mostly cook our meals
with PNG(PIPED NATURAL GAS), which is transported through pipelines, after re-gasification of LNG, then
either stored in gas cylinders for industrial use, or distributed as piped gas,
also for Domestic, Hotels, Hospitals, and Industrial use..
Primary use of NG ( Natural Gas) is in Fertilizers, Power Plant, Domestic
use (COOKING), Hotels, Transport, and
some Hydro Carbon based Industry.
PURCHASING MODE
INDIA
require about 40 MMtpa LNG per year, and 45++% need to be imported.
There
are two types of purchasing mode—
1.0
Spot Purchasing, and
2.0
long term import contract.
We
do both, based on market condition. Spot Purchasing is profitable in a “BUYER’S
MARKET”, and for short term requirement. If the forecast is steady growth of price, a negotiated Long Term FIXED RATE Purchase Contract is profitable for large, long term requirement.
PETRONET LNG (A PSU Company)-- Sourcing :- (2-year-old data.)
§ 7.7.5 MMTPA sourced through Long Term Contract with Ras Gas, Qatar, (later merged with Qatar Energy) having
back-to-back sales arrangement with GAIL, IOCL & BPCL.
§ 1.425
MMTPA LNG tied up from MARC – An Exxon Mobil's Venture in Australia with
back-to-back sales arrangement with GAIL, IOCL & BPCL.
§ Additional
LNG being sourced through Spot /Short Term Contracts & sold to Off takers/
Bulk Buyers from time to time.
Company has executed
long term firm capacity booking agreements totaling to 8.25 MTPA with
major players like GAIL, IOCL, BPCL, GSPC and Torrent.
NOW LET'S REVIEW THE FACTS of the deal:
1.0
Existing Contract had a condition—"..India can extend the contract on
same terms and conditions 5 Years prior to end date…” and the D date was 31/12/23.
India
/ Petronet started negotiation accordingly—but demanded at a lower than
prevailing price. Ultimately, Qatar agreed, Petronet LNG Ltd has
signed an extension of 20-year of existing deal expiring on 2028, up-to 2048, with Qatar Energy
for continuing buying 7.5 million Tonne of liquefied natural gas (LNG) per annum at $ 78 Billion. The savings was $ 6.0 Billion.
This is not a new deal—but old contract executed in 1999, and extended till 2048, at a lower price.
Press report can be seen in Live Mint on February 6/2024,
and later- in Economic Times, and other News Papers. This proves New Delhi didn’t sign a secret NEW
deal with Qatar, as is made out by some ‘experts’.
OTHER OPTIONS:-
1.0 India buys gas from other countries also. See the
pi-chart presented below:-
2.0 The purchase price also depends upon freight charges
(cost of shipping, etc.) the farther the country, greater will be import cost
for India. We must consider the LANDED COST, L.C.= Cost + Freight + INSURANCE
for commercial bid evaluation. From USA, it is 30-35 days transportation. From
Qatar- it is just 5/6 days—considering the effect of Wind, and Current. From
Russia—same reason. From Iran—various alternatives are being worked out during
last 15 years. Geo-Political & regional instability is a hindrance. I carried out feasibility
study of a DEEP-WATER PIPELINE, from IRANà Pakistan(CROSS COUNTRY)à ( DEEP WATER PIPE LINE, crossing Arabian
Sea)à INDIA. It may not be dropped, but not progressed either, due to Geo-Political instability.
3.0 We are largely Energy deficient country, and have
developed large consumer base for Natural Gas. Hence, we need a long-term
steady supplier, with a long-term contract. The choices are limited.
5.0 We are now developing a GAS FIELD in MOZAMBIQUE, for our additional consumption.
GAS RESERVOIR OF INDIA
The largest reserves are found in the Western Offshore (37%)
and Assam (27%). The estimated reserves of natural gas in India as of 1 April
2021 was 1,372.62 BCM, increasing by 0.52% from the previous year. The
largest reserves of natural gas are located in the Eastern Offshore (40.6%) and
the Western Offshore (23.7%). These are enough to meet about 50% of
our demand.. Rest has to be imported. But, we don’t have at present, TECHNOLOGY to extract all reservoirs
economically.
Moreover, we have GAS in
HYDRATE formation, in DEEP SEA , at east coast, and also may be at west coast,
at sufficient depth below sea bed. I
carried out a PILOT STUDY , while I was working in EIL, but concluded it is inviable
for insufficiency in Technology, and Cost. May be, this will materialize in
future.
Basis, &Source:-
1.0 Domain Knowledge, experience and
expertise.
2.0 Al-Jazira—10- to 15/02.
3.0 Indian Newspapers, MINT, LIVE MINT, and Media..
Image:--
1.0 IE.
2.0 PI Chart:- Statistica.
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