ELECTION
---2024
FORECAST—AS
ON 02/24
SARASIJ
MAJUMDER
BACKGROUND,
ANALYSIS, AND PREDICTION:-
1.0 RAM LALA has been settled in his
kingdom at Ayodhya. Control of U.P. is full, and final by Mr. Yogi Adityanath. Sonia Maino has fled from
Rai-Barely. Amethi lost permanently. Jayanta Choudhari openly said he and his
party will support NDA. BJP will get 77/80 here.
2.0 Manipur problem is finding a
resolution. Mr. Hemant Biswa has good influence in NORTH--EASTERN Region.
INCLUDING ASSAM—Nort- Eastern Tally will be
16 for BJP.
3.0 Annamalai has progressed well in
Tamil Nadu. My assessment it will be at least 3 seats.
4.0 Son of Bala Sahev is on the way
to oblivion. Mr. Ashok Chavan joined BJP. Sharad Pawar has become insignificant to Maharashtra
politics and more so to Indian politics. NCP, the party founded by him no
longer belongs to him. Politically he is a bankrupt. BJP/NDA in Maharashtra
will secure at least 42 out of 48 seats.
5.0
NITISH BABU in BIHAR joined BJP/NDA. Will collect36/40 seats. The NDA
6.0
Gujarat—No discussion needed. 100% will be with BJP: 26/26.
7.0
Understanding with Telegu Desham is
almost in final stage. AP + TELENGANA,
it is quite likely that BJP will get 6 Seats. NDA, based on future alliance, in
these two states, could be 12+-- but it is a speculation today.
8.0
BJD in Orissa is not a part of Dotted
Party—and will mostly support NDA, in both the houses, and a silent ally. Still,
BJP here will secure12 seats.
9.0
In West Bengal—Sandesh Khali will take out whatever FOOTHOLD SCAM RIDDEN HIGHLY
CORRUPT TMC is having there. BJP will
get 25/42 seats.
10.0
Mr. Kejriwal is hiding from ED summons—many AAP ministers are in jail in
charges of corruption. In Delhi, 7 out of 7 seats will go to BJP. In Punjab, it
will be 3. Total 10 seats in DELHI + PUNJAB---
AAP BASTION—influenced by Khalistanis, Mufftkhors, and Minority.
11.0
In Haryana—it will be 10/10 for BJP
12.0
In Rajasthan—the BJP influence is complete. It is likely 25/25.
13.0
Jammu, Kashmir, and Ladakh:--Total 7 Seats. BJP/NDA will get at least 4 Seats.
14.0
In M.P.—it will be clean sweep. Kamalnath, or no Kamalnath. It will be 29/29.
15.0
Karnataka:-- Electoral Re- Engineering is being completed. Most likely-25/28
will be result.
16.0
Chhattisgarh, and Jharkhand—There are11 (C)+14 (J)= 25 seats. My estimate is 11
in Chhattisgarh, and 13 in Jharkhand:==24/25 seats.
17.0
H.P. and GOA will deliver 100% , and it will be 6/6. Uttarakhand will also
deliver 100%-- and it will be 5/5.
18.0Puduchery—BJP1/1;
Lakshadweep—0/1; and Kerala—ZERO, though vote share will increase.
WHAT
EMERGE:
OUT
of 543, BJP/NDA is sure to get 382 seats in Parliament. I have noticed P.M.s
slogan in parliament: “AB KI BAR—400 PAR”, which prompted me to work on this.
But—I am falling short— still some time left.
The
Major problem for BJP is 4 Southern states, Telangana, Tamil Nadu,
Kerala, and Andhra along with Punjab. They have total 114 seats, where BJP may
get less than 20 seats. Yet it is possible regional alliances will improve
present scene in these states.
UNLESS
NDA GETS 40+ OUT OF ABOVE 114 SEATS, CROSSING 400 MAY NOT BE POSSIBLE.
Notes, and references:-
1.0 The result of 2019 General Election, and recent Assembly
elections are given due weightage.
2.0 Effect of Development, and Pro-BJP environment will swing
the result at least by 10%. Ram-Mandir, and Qatar incident will give positive
BOOST. Seats where BJP lost up to a margin of 5-8%, will definitely come to BJP.
3.0 Increase of Votes to
BJP by Muslim Women will happen. “CHUP CHAP—KAMAL
CHHAP”
4.0 CONGRESS, I.N.D.I.A., Bharat Jodo Naya Yatra—all are in a
mess.
6.0 Rich Land owners of Punjab started a protest in the name of
Farmers. It has yet created any sympathy. And, it’s effect, if at all there
is, will be limited to Punjab only.
7.0 Refer my Blog on Election Prospects at Tamil Nadu, listed below. I will cover Major
states, where the seats are 40+, with more details, later.
My score is 394 considering some seats from Kerala (5). Might improve in Punjab to 5.
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