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  NEWS & VIEWS|||SARASIJ|||28—07--2026 TUESDAY| VOL—IV/2026/JULY OPINIONATED, FOR FREE CIRCULATION. “ अपि स्वर्णमयी लङ्का न मे लक्ष्मण रोचते। जननी जन्मभूमिश्च स्वर्गादपि ||” -----Valmiki Ramayan INDIA: (GOI, SWARAJYA, VISHWAMITRA, HINDU POST, INDIA TODAY). Anti-Paper Leak Bill Tabled: The central government introduced the Public Examinations (Prevention of Unfair Means) Amendment Bill, 2026 in the Lok Sabha. The strict new law proposes a minimum of five years of imprisonment and fines up to ₹50 lakh to suppress cheating. Parliament Stormed by Deadlock: Despite Lok Sabha Speaker Om Birla offering a dedicated six-hour window for debate, the session was adjourned without active discussion due to intensive Opposition protests over recent student agitations. Supreme Court Reframes Protest Rules: Hearing petitions linked to national student demonstrations, the Supreme Court of India observed that the right to peaceful protest is constitutionally protected and indica...
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ELECTION ---2024

FORECAST—AS ON 02/24

SARASIJ MAJUMDER

The sooner the General Election takes place, the better is for BJP. It is likely to be scheduled in APRIL

BACKGROUND, ANALYSIS, AND PREDICTION:-

1.0 RAM LALA has been settled in his kingdom at Ayodhya. Control of U.P. is full, and final by Mr. Yogi  Adityanath. Sonia Maino has fled from Rai-Barely. Amethi lost permanently. Jayanta Choudhari openly said he and his party will support NDA. BJP will get 77/80 here.

2.0 Manipur problem is finding a resolution. Mr. Hemant Biswa has good influence in NORTH--EASTERN Region. INCLUDING ASSAM—Nort- Eastern Tally will be  16 for BJP.

3.0 Annamalai has progressed well in Tamil Nadu. My assessment it will be at least 3 seats.

4.0 Son of Bala Sahev is on the way to oblivion. Mr. Ashok Chavan joined BJP. Sharad Pawar has become insignificant to Maharashtra politics and more so to Indian politics.  NCP, the party founded by him no longer belongs to him. Politically he is a bankrupt. BJP/NDA in Maharashtra will secure at least 42 out of 48 seats.

5.0 NITISH BABU in BIHAR joined BJP/NDA. Will collect36/40 seats. The NDA

6.0 Gujarat—No discussion needed. 100% will be with BJP: 26/26.

7.0 Understanding  with Telegu Desham is almost in  final stage. AP + TELENGANA, it is quite likely that BJP will get 6 Seats. NDA, based on future alliance, in these two states, could be 12+-- but it is a speculation today.

8.0 BJD in Orissa is not a part of  Dotted Party—and will mostly support NDA, in both the houses, and a silent ally. Still, BJP here will secure12 seats.

9.0 In West Bengal—Sandesh Khali will take out whatever FOOTHOLD SCAM RIDDEN HIGHLY CORRUPT  TMC is having there. BJP will get 25/42 seats.

10.0 Mr. Kejriwal is hiding from ED summons—many AAP ministers are in jail in charges of corruption. In Delhi, 7 out of 7 seats will go to BJP. In Punjab, it will be 3. Total 10 seats in DELHI + PUNJAB---  AAP BASTION—influenced by Khalistanis, Mufftkhors, and Minority.

11.0 In Haryana—it will be 10/10 for BJP

12.0 In Rajasthan—the BJP influence is complete. It is likely 25/25.

13.0 Jammu, Kashmir, and Ladakh:--Total 7 Seats. BJP/NDA will get at least 4 Seats.

14.0 In M.P.—it will be clean sweep. Kamalnath, or no Kamalnath. It will be 29/29.

15.0 Karnataka:-- Electoral Re- Engineering is being completed. Most likely-25/28 will be result.

16.0 Chhattisgarh, and Jharkhand—There are11 (C)+14 (J)= 25 seats. My estimate is 11 in Chhattisgarh, and 13 in Jharkhand:==24/25 seats.

17.0 H.P. and GOA will deliver 100% , and it will be 6/6. Uttarakhand will also deliver 100%-- and it will be 5/5.

18.0Puduchery—BJP1/1; Lakshadweep—0/1; and Kerala—ZERO, though vote share will increase.

WHAT EMERGE:

OUT of 543, BJP/NDA is sure to get 382 seats in Parliament. I have noticed P.M.s slogan in parliament: “AB KI BAR—400 PAR”, which prompted me to work on this. But—I am falling short— still some time left.

The Major problem for BJP is 4 Southern states,  Telangana, Tamil Nadu, Kerala, and Andhra along with Punjab. They have total 114 seats, where BJP may get less than 20 seats. Yet it is  possible regional alliances will improve present  scene in these states.

UNLESS NDA GETS 40+ OUT OF ABOVE 114 SEATS, CROSSING 400 MAY NOT BE POSSIBLE.

Notes, and references:-

1.0 The result of 2019 General Election, and recent Assembly elections are given due weightage.

2.0 Effect of Development, and Pro-BJP environment will swing the result at least by 10%. Ram-Mandir, and Qatar incident will give positive BOOST. Seats where BJP lost up to a margin of 5-8%,  will definitely come to BJP.

3.0 Increase of Votes to  BJP   by  Muslim Women will happen. “CHUP CHAP—KAMAL CHHAP”

4.0 CONGRESS, I.N.D.I.A., Bharat Jodo Naya Yatra—all are in a mess.

6.0 Rich Land owners of Punjab started a protest in the name of Farmers. It has yet created any sympathy. And, it’s effect, if at all there is,  will be limited to Punjab only.

7.0 Refer my Blog on Election Prospects at  Tamil Nadu, listed below. I will cover Major states, where the seats are 40+, with more details, later.https://sarasij1majumder.blogspot.com/2024/02/singham-annamalai-at-tamilnadu-new.html

 

 

 

Comments

  1. Anonymous24 February 2024 at 10:51

    My score is 394 considering some seats from Kerala (5). Might improve in Punjab to 5.

    ReplyDelete

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