THIRUBANTAPURAM, KERALA
POWER SEAT NO--3
ANTI-INCUMBANCY MAY CATCH-UP
ELECTION is over, and Die is cast. We are only making post
poll assessment.
Reflecting a general trend witnessed across the State, the
two Lok Sabha constituencies in Thiruvananthapuram district had a considerable
drop in voting percentage. As per the information from the Election Commission
of India (ECI) at 8.30 p.m. on 26/04/2024, the Thiruvananthapuram Lok Sabha constituency
recorded 66.46% polling, while the Attingal constituency recorded 69.40% voting
percentage. About 10% less than last time.
We will discuss on the result of THIRUBANTAPURAM.
Of the 14.30 lakh listed voters in the Thiruvananthapuram
constituency, about 9.50 lakh cast their votes on last Friday.
12 Candidates contested. The main contestants are:
1.0 SASHI THAROOR—three times
winner. INC
2.0 RAJEEV CHANDRASHEKAR. CABINET MINISTER. BJP
3.0 PANNIAN RAVINDRAN—CPI.
KEY FACTORS
- SASHI
THAROOR is 3 times MP from Trivandrum
so Anti-Incumbency will work. And he was always busy elsewhere, and in
other than political matters.
- This
is the district in Kerala with highest percentage of UNEMPLOYMENT. The
total number of work seekers in Thiruvananthapuram district is 5.2 lakh;
of which 3.24 lakh are women and 1.96 lakh men. All of them are eligible
VOTERS. The pulse may be clear. People are fed up with no progress, no
jobs, and no development in the last 15 years. Youth are increasingly
frustrated about the high unemployment rate. People want to hear how an
MP, a party, or a leader can transform and improve their lives. That is
precisely what the situation is here.
- BJP’S
vote share is rising since last 3 election, now they have 33% vote share
and positioned at a very close 2nd place.
- BJP
has filed a strong candidate, a cabinet minister Rajeev Chandrasekharan.
He is expected to look after the constituency much better than Mr.
Tharoor.
- Trivandrum
has a large Hindu presence and majority of them are General and OBC voters
who are backbone of BJP vote bank.
- Christian
community of Kerala has close ties with RSS and BJP. Few churches have
shown support for BJP, recently,
and also they screened Kerala Files in church.
- Growing
Anti- CPM sentiment in Christian community has developed. A fraction of
Christians believe CPM is more into appeasement politics for Muslims so
they find BJP as an alternative.
DEMOGRAPHY, AND ELECTORATE.
The Trivandrum Parliament seat is having 66+% of Hindus,
mostly OBC & forward castes, Christian 20(-) % and Muslim 13++ % population
form the 33 +%. BJP has a strong base of around 32% of votes
in the constituency.
In 2014 BJP scored 31.3%, CPI 25.6% and Cong 41.2%. BJP
positioned itself in the second place in the RACE, though Congress won. Also, the CPI has been relegated to third
position which is also a good achievement of BJP, compared to Past.
In 2019 BJP scored 32.32%, CPI 28.5% and Cong 34.1%. Shashi Tharoor polled 2,97,806 and O Rajagopal polled 2,82,336 votes. The margin in 2019 has been too thin.
WHAT EMERGE:-.
In 2024 the fight is even closer between Shashi Tharoor and
Rajiv Chandrashekar because the incumbent minister and a former minister are in
the fray. The fight between the two has only intensified. In a three way split
it may be BJP coming out successful.
In a NAIR against NAIR contest, Mr. Tharoor may meet his WATERLOO this time.It is most likely that Rajeev Chandrashekar will win this election this time.
5.0 IMAGE:-- GOOGLE.
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