MONSOON FORECAST—2024
THE PREPERATION REQUIRED.
SARASIJ MAJUMDER
Indian economy still largely depends on Agriculture. And our
agriculture still depends on GOOD MONSOON—directly, or indirectly--- which I
will explain in another BLOG. Today- we will discuss on this year’s South-West
Monsoon.
India, this year, is
likely to receive above normal rainfall during the upcoming June-September
southwest monsoon season, the India Meteorological Department (IMD) predicted
in its first long-range seasonal forecast issued on April 15, 2024.
This is the first time, after a gap of eight years, that the
IMD has forecast “above normal” rains in the country. This above normal
seasonal rainfall is “very likely” cover
most parts of the country, the IMD said, except in some areas over northwest,
east and northeast India, where below normal rainfall is “very likely” expected.
If distributed fairly across the country, the forecast
should be a cause of cheer, especially for agriculture and a time when 35.7 per cent area in the country is under ‘abnormal’
to ‘exceptional’ degrees of drought, with many parts of the country is facing
water shortages.
Quantitatively, the seasonal rainfall over the country as a
whole is likely to be 106 per cent of Long Period Average (LPA). The IMD
categorises the seasonal rainfall as above-normal when it ranges between
105-110 per cent of the LPA (Refer table below).
The LPA for
the period between June and September is 87 centimetres (870 mm) and is
calculated as the average rainfall between 1971-2020. By this calculation, it
means that there would be 92.2 cm of rainfall across India.
The forecast is based on four main factors:
- Retreat
of El Nino, soon.
- Emergence
of favourable La Nina condition.
- Positive
Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD).
- Reduced
snow cover in Northern Hemisphere.
El Nino conditions, currently prevailing over the equatorial
Pacific region and generally responsible for warmer temperatures in many places
around the world including in India, is likely to weaken to neutral El Nino
Southern Oscillation (ENSO) conditions during early part of the monsoon season.
The warming phase of ENSO cycle is known as El Nino and its
cooling phase as La Nina. It is characterised by the unusual cooling of the
central and east-central equatorial Pacific Ocean.
“La Nina conditions are likely to develop during second half
of monsoon season. At present, neutral IOD conditions are prevailing over the
Indian Ocean and the latest climate model forecasts, and indicate that the positive IOD conditions are
likely to develop during the later part of the southwest monsoon season,” the
IMD posted.
M Ravichandran, secretary, Union Ministry of Earth Sciences,
while addressing a press conference said data from 1951 to 2023 shows India
experienced above-normal monsoon rainfall on nine occasions when La Nina
followed an El Nino event.
IMD also pointed out that winter and spring snow cover
extent over the Northern Hemisphere as well as Eurasia has a generally inverse
relationship with the subsequent Indian summer and associated monsoon rainfall.
“The Northern Hemisphere snow cover areas during January to
March 2024 were observed to be below normal,” it said.
The forecast shows that most of India will receive above
normal rainfall, except for parts in Ladakh ( RAIN SHADOW AREA), Himachal
Pradesh, Assam, Tripura, Mizoram, Manipur, West Bengal, and Odisha, which were
likely to receive below normal rains (see map ).
The last time India’s official weather forecaster issued an
“above normal” rainfall prediction was in 2016, which occurred after two
consecutive drought years.
India receives 70-90 per cent of its annual rainfall in the
four months of June-September. A normal and well-distributed monsoon is crucial
for the 60+ per cent of Indian farmers, who are dependent on rains for Harvesting
and Agriculture.
The monsoon has a direct impact on India’s
economy. Uniform distribution leads to a successful monsoon season, which
boosts farm production and incomes of both farmers and labourers. This has
an impact on rural household incomes, which then stimulates demand for goods
and services, especially rural demand. This is good for overall economy.
The onset of the monsoon over mainland India happens around
June 1, in Kerala.
IMD issues the operational long-range forecast for the
southwest monsoon in two stages. The first stage forecast is issued in April
and the second stage updated forecast is issued by the end of May.
I will keep a watch on MAY forecast, and update my readers.
The monsoon forecast comes days after the IMD had
predicted intense heatwave conditions in the summer season of
April-May-June.
MY OBSERVATIONS:-
1.0 Based on my study of relevant data, and Charts—I predict
higher rainfall intensity during later part of MONSOON.
2.0 Based on 1.0 above—we will get rain, and more water,
when Reservoirs are full. Need forethought to handle this situation.
3.0 Can we plan two crops in favourable areas in the same
monsoon, with some early as well as,
late irrigation support???
4.0 For Punters:- Buy shares involved with Agricultural
Industry, and chemical Fertilizers, Insecticides.. etc.
5.0 Flood Control—and enhancing storage capacity—job of GOI,
and State Governments.
REFERENCES:-
1.0 https://www.imdagrimet.gov.in/
2.0 GOI PRESS RELEASE-- 8 PAGES.
3.0 Also hyperlinks marked blue in text.
4.0 Table, & Image—IMD.
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