CHINA’S S-E ASIAN
GAMBLE
SRI
LANKA—MALDIVES—BANGLADESH
SARASIJ
MAJUMDER
THE MALDIVIAN DRAMA:
India’s External Affairs Minister (EAM) Jaishankar returned
Maldives after a successful visit.. This confirms Relations between the island
nation and China is now in Cold Storage—at least for the time being. After nine
months of ‘India Out’ campaign led by the Maldivian President, Mohamed
Muizzu, who was a pro-Beijing Leader, he revised his posture.
MUIZZU has to swallow back his Anti- Indian Words, and SPIT
OUT BEIJING !
Muizzu’s election victory was built around the ‘India Out’
campaign which sought to remove “88” Indian soldiers positioned in the island
nation, to maintain and operate three
reconnaissance vessel, and a rescue
aircraft, all donated by Delhi years
ago.
Muizzu tried to correct his aberration during Oath taking
ceremony of Indian P.M.—though he was somewhat coldly received. Even then he
warmed up to India—knowing that he, and his Island nation is standing on the
brink of economic disaster.
How Maldives now handle Chinese surveillance vessel in its
water, based on strong objections from India is to be seen. USA also expressed
concern in this regard.
The Maldives’ economy, heavily reliant on tourism, suffered
a significant blow as Indian citizens, angered by the anti-India stance, began boycotting the
island nation. This economic pressure have played a significant role in course
correction.
Moreover, Maldives is grappling with a significant debt
burden, with a large portion of its loans coming from China, approximately $1.3
billion. Chinese projects have left the Maldives debt-laden. The IMF has warned
of the Maldives’ large current account deficit and elevated public debt levels.
Facing these financial challenges, the Muizzu government sought to restructure
its loans from China, who initially expressed reluctance. While China has
reportedly agreed to defer loan repayments for five years, concerns remain
about the nature of this restructuring and whether it involves new soft loans.
The Maldives is facing a critical economic juncture, with a
substantial amount of Chinese loans due for repayment in 2026. India, on the
other hand, agreed to defer its loans repayment schedule, to the relief of island nation.
Recognising the potential pitfalls of over-reliance on
China, the Maldives began to re-evaluate its relationship with India. India,
with its historical ties, geographical proximity, and more favourable lending
practices, re-emerged as a more attractive , and dependable partner.
And Maldives started mending old ties with India. From
announcing that Dornier aircraft (gifted by India) will now be used for medical
evacuation to having roadshows titled ‘Welcome India’ to woo back Indian
tourists, there has been a shift in its entire narrative.
References:-
1.0 https://www.uniindia.com/news/india/maldives-india-relations-strongest-now-says-fm-zameer-after-eam-s-visit/3260696.html
2.0https://navbharattimes.indiatimes.com/opinion/editorial/foreign-minister-s-jaishankar-visit-to-maldives-relations-improved/articleshow/112453864.cms
3.0https://navbharattimes.indiatimes.com/world/asian-countries/indian-maldives-relations-s-jaishankar-male-visit-as-mohamed-muizzu-likely-visit-to-india-in-september/articleshow/112420891.cms
SRILANKA’S PAST NIGHTMARE:
Maldives’s situation is same as what happened in SRI LANKA
in the past. This situation has drawn comparisons to Sri Lanka, which faced a
severe debt crisis and ultimately received assistance from India after China
declined to restructure its loans totaling $4 billion.
China initially provide financial assistance, the terms
often came with strings attached, leaving countries like Sri Lanka burdened
with debt and forced to cede control of strategic assets. The example of the
Hambantota port, now under Chinese control for 99 years, may have served as a cautionary tale for the
Maldives, but a little late.
After repeated objections by India, Sri Lanka had announced
earlier this year a one-year moratorium on such visits by research/ survey
ships that can accumulate data for both scientific and military purposes.
In between, people of SRI LANKA, forced out their Pro
Beijing Past President—Mr. Rajapaksha.
With Indian support, Sri Lanka is now recovering.
Refer my BLOG on this matter, listed below on above:
https://sarasij1majumder.blogspot.com/2024/05/chinese-checker-srilanka.html
PRESENT POLITICAL TURMOIL IN BANGLADESH :
Similarly, in Bangladesh, which was suffering through a period of international
isolationism led by the USA , UNO, and EU, China has once again floundered.
The situation there is worse than others.
The relationship between India, China, and Bangladesh is
complex in its history, economics, and geopolitics. While India and Bangladesh
share a long and intertwined history, marked by cultural ties and a shared
struggle for independence, China has been steadily increasing its presence in
the region, seeking to expand its influence.
Bangladesh, under Sheikh Hasina, strategically located between India and
Southeast Asia, has been walking a tightrope, attempting to balance its
relationships with both giants of ASIA. While Dhaka has traditionally leaned
towards India, recognizing the deep historical and cultural connections, it has
also been pragmatic in seeking economic opportunities from China.
This balancing act was evident in a statement made by a
Bangladeshi minister in 2023, who described India as a “POLITICAL FRIEND” and
China as a “Friend For Attaining Development”. This subtle distinction
highlighted Bangladesh’s desire to leverage China’s economic clout, while
maintaining its close political relationship with India.
The Chines betrayal occurred
when initially promised $5 billion loan was put to cold storage, and a paltry $100 million actually offered
during Madam Hasina’s last, and recent unsuccessful visit to China.
Abrupt return of Madam Hasina from China speaks volumes. It suggests a
lack of genuine commitment from China and a failure to understand Bangladesh’s
pressing economic needs.
Furthermore, the brevity of Hasina’s meeting with Xi
Jinping, the absence of a call from Foreign Minister Wang Yi, and the muted
coverage in Chinese state media all point towards a lack of enthusiasm and
priority that Bangladesh demands. This stands in stark contrast to the warm
reception and generous pledges extended to Bangladesh by India, in her last
visit.
Hasina’s decision to cut her trip short, despite lack of the diplomatic niceties, sends a clear
message: Bangladesh is not willing to settle for crumbs. Dhaka is acutely aware
of its strategic value and is not afraid to leverage its position to secure the
best possible deals.
However,
a different internal turmoil occurred soon, and it forced Madam Hasina to resign, and seek temporary
Asylum in India.
An interim Government is working as puppet to MILITARY, and
continuing Mass Unrest is going on there, accompanied by HINDU Genocide, who
are residing minority of Bangladesh.
Bangladesh is passing through a very very dark phase now.
URL of my two BLOGS on above is listed below for your
reference, and further study.
1.0 https://sarasij1majumder.blogspot.com/2024/08/5-th-august-2024bangladesh-usapakistan.html
2.0 https://sarasij1majumder.blogspot.com/2024/08/quota-in-government-service-trigger-in.html
WHAT EMERGE:
While Beijing may possess significant economic clout, its
ability to translate that power into meaningful partnerships is hampered by a
lack of genuine engagement, a tendency towards transactional relationships, and
a failure to fully understand the nuances of local politics and priorities.
This is a major setback to China’s hopes of increasing
influence in South Asia, especially in Bangladesh which at the moment is
extremely vulnerable. The violent protests have led to backlash from the west,
especially the US and UK. It also led to it being isolated at international
forums, leaving China the perfect opportunity to get closer. However, it
certainly has failed to do so.
China’s attempts to capitalize on perceived rifts between
India and its neighbours have ultimately fallen short. Both the Maldives and Sri
Lanka, while initially appearing receptive to China’s overtures, ultimately
reasserted their ties with India. While China possesses economic clout, its
approach to diplomacy lacks the nuance and understanding required to build
lasting partnerships in South Asia. Despite Xi Jinping’s calls for
strengthening ties with “partners” in the Indian ocean, these “partners” have been
left feeling short changed with Beijing’s aggressive lending techniques and
exploiting potential partners for its gain, rather them helping them in their
time of need as a friend and ally.
India, with its historical ties and more favourable
engagement, has proven to be a more reliable partner. This highlights a broader
trend: China’s repeated failure to translate economic power into genuine
influence in South Asia. While China may have hoped to exploit regional
fissures, it has ultimately found itself losing ground to India.
NOTE:- All references are listed at the end of sub-heading.
And all information are in public domain.
OPINION, AND CONCLUSSION--BLOGGER
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