ELECTION:-- 2024//FORECAST

 REFERENCE à  NDA

SARASIJ MAJUMDER

 

The BUGLE call of election is ultimately sounded by GOI. The dates are announced. Many Candidates are already finalized, and declared by both – NDA, and I.N.D.I. group.  NDA is ahead in this race. They have almost sorted out all the alliances, and also the contestants. Most of the DAL-BADLOOS are having only a one way route.

I.N.D.I. Association   failed to take  onboard BSP in their team, apart from some other mishaps in a few states.  Including Uttar Pradesh, the I.N.D.I. front will face a division of votes in Haryana, Madhya Pradesh, Chhattisgarh and Rajasthan where the BSP has some vote shares.  BSP will mainly cut opposition votes. This will make BJP+ to have an easy election in these states.

For analysis, we divide the States, and U.T. of INDIA  into several groups.

GROUP A :--Comfortably winning states (197 seats) -
There are some states like Uttar Pradesh(80), Madhya Pradesh(29), Gujarat(26) Rajasthan(25), Chhattisgarh(11), Haryana(10), Delhi(7), Uttarakhand(5), and Himachal Pradesh(4) of 28 states and 8 UTs where BJP has excellent chances to repeat its success like 2014 & 2019, or even better. Except for Gujarat, all the above states are those where BJP got excellent mandate even if there were Non-BJP state govt at the time of Lok Sabha election  during 2014 or 2019. So, here people are voting in the name of Modi and supporting his vision for India. If the Modi magic keeps its spell  then  170 seats out of 197 seats will be an easy target for BJP+.

GROUP B:- States where BJP is somewhat dependent on Alliances (130 seats)
There are some states like Maharashtra (48), Bihar(40), Karnataka(28), and Jharkhand(14) where regional parties' support is necessary for a GOOD mandate. Without the alliance of SS, it will be difficult to repeat the last 2 elections' success in MAHARASHTRA. The same is true in Bihar and Jharkhand, where they are expecting support from JDU, HAM, AJSU, and LJP(RP) to stop the I.N.D.I. front. On the other hand, in Karnataka BJP alone can defeat INC which they did twice, both times when INC was in power in the state. But to strengthen the possibility, the BJP is looking for support from JDS whereas for saving its identity in Karnataka JDS is looking for BJP’s support. So, in this context, it looks like NDA(BJP+) can easily achieve 100+ seats out of 130 in this group.

NOTE 1:- As per the current situation if the election takes place today then the NDA can easily win 270+ seats out of 327 seats in above states. Almost majority achieved.

GROUP C:- One-on-one fight States for BJP (82 seats)
As per the pre-poll survey of various agencies, it is showing good response for the BJP in West Bengal(42), Odisha(21), Telangana(17), and Goa(2) where there will be  one-on-one or trilateral competition among the BJP, INC and regional parties. In West Bengal, as the I.N.D.I. front finding difficult  to field candidates, now there will be a one-on-one fight in most of the seats between AITC and BJP. There will be a possibility that the BJP may finish the tally at 20+ seats due to the Sandesh Khali issue, law & order problem and pro-incumbency for the Central govt. Then states like Odisha where INC is struggling and BJP is slowly growing. ‘BJD’ is already in alliance. NDA will get 21 out of 21 seats in Odisha. In Telangana, there will be fights among BRS, INC and BJP. As per the current situation, it looks like BJP will be able to retain its seats and BRS may lose some seats to INC. In this context, there will be a competition between BRS and BJP for second position in vote share and seat counts. Goa will be the direct fight between BJP and INC. Here AAP may reduce INC's chance to win any seats by fielding its candidates. So, in these states, the BJP may get 50+ seats

GROUP D:-- Poor influence states (97 seats)

In southern states like Tamil Nadu(39), Andhra Pradesh(25), Kerala(20), and in  NORTH--Punjab(13)-- these are states where BJP is struggling to get some seat on its own. Without the allies, the BJP may not able to fight with the INC or left. In Tamil Nadu, it will be difficult for the BJP to get 3/4 seat without support from the PMK, AIADMK(OP) and others. In Andhra Pradesh, before TDP joined the NDA, the fight was between YRSC Vs. TDP. JSP and BJP could get some vote shares but now the situation changed. Here the NDA may get 13+ seats. In Kerala, there will be a direct fight between LDF Vs. UDF. BJP may get a good vote share compared to the last election. BJP is fielding some star players in the election battle. So, it may get 1 to 2 seats in Kerela. But At last, Punjab where the BJP fought the Lok Sabha election with SAD for a long time, the situation changed. Fake farmers’ protest may have some  negative impact in Punjab. This time it will be an acid test as the BJP will fight it alone. For the BJP, getting 18 seats from 84 seats  here will be an achievement this time.

GROUP E:-- BJP in North-East and Sikkim (25 seats)

There are 8 states including Assam(14), Manipur(2), Arunachal Pradesh(2), Tripura(2), Meghalaya(2), Nagaland(1), Mizoram(1) and Sikkim(1). In states like Assam(14), Manipur(2), Arunachal Pradesh(2), and Tripura(2), the BJP is in a good position on its own whereas in the rest states BJP is dependent on its allies. As INC’s presence has become weak here day by day, as a result, BJP getting the upper hand. As per the current scenario, the BJP+ is in a position to get at least 14+ seats. 

GROUP F:- UTs (12 seats) Excluding Delhi

The group consists of Andaman and Nicobar Islands(1), Chandigarh(1), Puducherry(1), Lakshadweep(1), Jammu & Kashmir(5), Ladakh(1),  Dadra & Nagar Haveli and Daman & Diu(2). In these 12 seats except for Lakshadweep and Puducherry, in all UTs BJP directly competes with INC or other parties. As per the current scenario except for Lakshadweep and Kashmir region, in all seats BJP or its allies will be victorious. So,  BJP will get 8 seats out of 12 seats.

NOTE 2:-- Hence—as per my assessment, as on today, NDA is having a range to  get 360, (+5/-1) seats in ELECTION 2024. If NDA gets 363 seats, 2/3 MAJORITY will be achieved, and amendment of constitution may be easy.

RAM TEMPLE may not have much impact in GROUP- D STATES, except some, on PUNJAB.

It was not possible for me to assess the influence of “MODI IMPACT” very accurately.

JAI SHREE RAM //JAI HIND

Source:--

1.0 Past Data: Published by Election commission.

2.0 GOI publications on DEMOGRAPHY etc.

3.0 Review of Survey by other agencies.

4.0 Analysis, and Deduction:-- By BLOGGER.

5.0 Image—Google.