FROM WAYANAD: KERALA
ON RA-GA’S FUTURE
SARASIJ MAJUMDER
Kerala is an established non-secular state (despite what their C.M. would like us to believe).
They vote mainly on religious and caste lines.
So, the three main voting blocks are the Hindus, split neatly
into the atheists (major) and the believers (minor), the Muslims and the
Christians.
CASTE FACTOR seldom crosses the boundary of religion.
The Muslims traditionally are with the Congress. Fully controlled by Mullahs,
as they vote en mass and there is no ambiguity in the choices of the candidates,
as there are no Muslim mainstream
candidates I mean!
The Christians also will go by the pulpit diktats.
Now is the problem!!! Not fair, the sneaky CPI has put up Annie Raja (also a Christian)! The pulpit
“suggestions” of voting for a Christian voice got blunted now! Whom Christian
will vote?? A half Italiano, who changes religion at temples, Mosques, and
Churches every day , on every opportunity??
NOT LIKELY-- Negative incumbency, and a better alternative available this time.
The constituency has 7 MLA from :==
Mananthavady---CPI (M)
Sulthan Bathery----INC
Kalpetta----INC
Thiruvambady---CPI(M)
Eranad----IUML
Nilambur----LDF/IND
Wandoor----INC
From above, you can observe that voters commitment is mostly
divided to INC, and Marxist Parties.
The contestants are:=
1.0 Rahul Gandhi---INC/ Religion practised is unknown. Appeases Muslims. Mother is Christian by birth..
2.0 Annie Raja---CPI/
INDIAN CHRISTIAN.
3.0 K. Surendran---BJP/ HINDU- Believer.
|
LET US
LOOK AT ELECTORAL DEMOGRAPHY.
Total electors: 1,357,819-- (2019)
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Hindu=49.48 %; Muslim=28.65
%; Christian=21.34 %; Sikh=0.01 %;
Buddhist=0.04 %; Jain=0.22 %; Others=0.03 %; Not Available=0.23
%
Besides the lure of a PM from Wayanad can go only a short
distance and no further.
NOW WE SHALL TRY TO FORTELL WHO WILL WIN, AND WE DON’T HAVE
A CRYSTAL BALL.
Assumptions:- ( BASED ON FIELD INPUT)
1.0 Muslims will vote 85%, and all will go to INC.
2.0 Christians will vote 70%, 80% will go to CPI, 15% to INC, and 5% to
BJP.
3.0 Hindu votes will be divided. They will vote 65%. All
believers will vote for BJP.
Atheists will largely vote for CPI. 10% may go
INC, on Secular consideration. 5 % to BJP.
Now we convert the above in numbers, and filter. Following
emerges:-
1.0 INC, and CPI will have a very close fight, with CPI
having small advantage. Each one of them will secure close to 3.7--4.0 Lakh
Votes. Prediction is Photo Finish.
2.0 BJP will be 3rd with about 2.0 Lakh Votes.
THE SEAT IS NOT SO SAFE FOR RA-GA this time. BJP’s entry has most likely caused a good contest between INC, and CPI.
Source:
1.0-https://www.census2011.co.in/data/religion/district/273-wayanad.html
2.0 https://www.deccanherald.com/elections
3.0 https://www.onmanorama.com/news/kerala.html
4.0 https://english.mathrubhumi.com/
5.0 Image—Decan Herald
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