FROM WAYANAD: KERALA

ON RA-GA’S FUTURE

SARASIJ MAJUMDER

Kerala is an established non-secular state (despite what their C.M. would like us to believe).

They  vote mainly on religious and caste lines.

So, the three main voting blocks are the Hindus, split neatly into the atheists (major) and the believers (minor), the Muslims and the Christians.

CASTE FACTOR seldom crosses the boundary of religion.

The Muslims traditionally are with the Congress. Fully controlled by Mullahs, as they vote en mass and there is no ambiguity in the choices of the candidates, as there are no  Muslim mainstream candidates I mean!

The Christians also will go by the pulpit diktats.

Now is the problem!!! Not fair, the sneaky CPI has put up Annie Raja (also a Christian)! The pulpit “suggestions” of voting for a Christian voice got blunted now! Whom Christian will vote?? A half Italiano, who changes religion at temples, Mosques, and Churches every day , on every opportunity??

NOT LIKELY-- Negative incumbency, and a  better alternative available this time.

The constituency has 7 MLA from :==

Mananthavady---CPI (M)

Sulthan Bathery----INC

Kalpetta----INC

Thiruvambady---CPI(M)

Eranad----IUML

Nilambur----LDF/IND

Wandoor----INC

From above, you can observe that voters commitment is mostly divided to INC, and Marxist Parties.

The contestants are:=

1.0 Rahul Gandhi---INC/ Religion practised is unknown. Appeases  Muslims. Mother is Christian by birth..

2.0 Annie Raja---CPI/ INDIAN  CHRISTIAN.

3.0 K. Surendran---BJP/ HINDU- Believer.

LET US LOOK AT ELECTORAL DEMOGRAPHY.

Total electors: 1,357,819-- (2019)

 Hindu=49.48 %; Muslim=28.65 %; Christian=21.34 %;  Sikh=0.01 %;

Buddhist=0.04 %; Jain=0.22 %; Others=0.03 %; Not Available=0.23 %

Besides the lure of a PM from Wayanad can go only a short distance and no further.

NOW WE SHALL TRY TO FORTELL WHO WILL WIN, AND WE DON’T HAVE A CRYSTAL BALL.

Assumptions:- ( BASED ON FIELD INPUT)

1.0 Muslims will vote 85%, and all will go to INC.

2.0 Christians will vote 70%,  80% will go to CPI, 15% to INC, and 5% to BJP.

3.0 Hindu votes will be divided. They will vote 65%. All believers will vote for BJP.

Atheists will largely vote for CPI.  10% may go  INC, on Secular consideration. 5 % to BJP.

Now we convert the above in numbers, and filter. Following emerges:-

1.0 INC, and CPI will have a very close fight, with CPI having small advantage. Each one of them will secure close to 3.7--4.0 Lakh Votes.  Prediction is Photo Finish. 

2.0 BJP will be 3rd  with about 2.0 Lakh Votes.

THE SEAT IS NOT SO SAFE FOR RA-GA this time. BJP’s entry has most likely caused a good contest between INC, and CPI.

Source:

1.0-https://www.census2011.co.in/data/religion/district/273-wayanad.html

2.0 https://www.deccanherald.com/elections

3.0 https://www.onmanorama.com/news/kerala.html

4.0 https://english.mathrubhumi.com/

5.0 Image—Decan Herald

 

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