MAHARASHTRA ELECTION -25
:MAHARASHTRA:
ASSEMBLY
ELECTION
PAST
ANALYSIS|| FORECAST
SARASIJ
MAJUMDER
A. VOTE SHARE:
PARLIAMENTARY ELECTION
MARATHAS -BJP+ : 46% INC+ : 39%
OBCs - BJP+
: 50% INC+ : 39%
FCs -
BJP+ : 58% INC+ : 38%
SCs -
BJP+ : 35% INC+ : 46%
Muslims voted one sided for INC+ as per CSDS Post Poll
Survey.
Overall, INC+ got 43.71% vote share while BJP+
43.55% vote share.
Looking at the current situation of Maharashtra Assembly,
the 'Mahayuti' (MY) alliance has a total of 203 seats, including 103
seats of BJP, 40 seats of Ajit Pawar's NCP, 38 seats of Shinde faction's Shiv
Sena. 14 independents along with five other parties are also with it.
On the other hand, the MAHA VIKASH AGADHI (MVA)has a total of 71 seats, in which
Congress has 37 seats, Uddhav faction's Shiv Sena has 16 seats and Sharad
Pawar's faction's NCP has 12 seats.
Even if Ajit faction breaks away from BJP, in the current
situation, BJP's coalition government will continue in Maharashtra.
BJP is worried about the elections to be held in October.
BJP may suffer losses here because its position in Maharashtra has weakened
after the Lok Sabha elections.
B. SHIV SENA (SS)—TWO FACTIONS
Presently it is divided. Uddhav controls one faction, and
Shinde controls another faction. BJP ( read AS with support of Modi) split it,
with the hope to bring curtains t political career of UT. It didn’t happen.
Present Parliament election result proves that he survived in alliance with NCP
(SP), and INC.
Symbol and Split:
- After
the 2022 split, the Election Commission gave the Shiv Sena name and
original “bow and arrow” symbol to the faction led by Eknath Shinde.
- Shiv
Sena (UBT) contested the Lok Sabha polls with a new symbol, the “flaming
torch,”
Uddhav Thackeray won't align with BJP under the present
leadership.
In the future, it might happen. Uddhav's issue isn't with
BJP itself but with Modi and Shah. They've broken Shiv Sena, jailed Sanjay
Raut, and Sena leaders felt harassed by investigating agencies. Uddhav , and those who felt harassed, can’t
forgive MODI--SHAH. This is the reality.
Even today, if BJP changes leadership, Uddhav would be more
comfortable with BJP than Congress. The reason is simple: Ideologies shape
party and people. Hindutva, an ideology
promoted by Balasaheb Thackeray (Uddhav's father), resonates with Uddhav.
Balasaheb was called Hindu Hridaysamrat, so Uddhav naturally aligns more with
BJP who more or less shares the same ideology.
I don’t think both faction of SHIVSENA can be united, in the
near future. They will remain separated and compete each other.
C. DUE ASSEMBLY ELECTION:
1.0 It is more or less obvious that MY will lose, if we
forecast on the basis of Lok Sabha performance. This is very much realised by Maharashtrian leaders
and MLAs of BJP, SS(EK) and
NCP(AP).
2.0 NCP(AP) will find it difficult, if not impossible to
keep the winning candidates with him—particularly, when NCP(SP) opened the
door. Those who will get ticket from Sharad Power, will change side. 100%.
Those who will remain—may compete, but mostly will not win. As such—BJP may be
looking for means and ways to drop this
broken party. But, that may not be
correct.
3.0 Ajit Pawar can surprise everyone in assembly elections. His
party has several Influential & resource-rich MLAs. In Lok Sabha, Ajit
Pawar did not have many influential candidates. But in assembly, he has. Need useful evaluation by BJP.Just like Goa,
candidates matter in Maharashtra too.
NDA's
biggest defeat was in Vidarbha and Marathwada in Maharashtra where Ajit Pawar
was not having influence. This problem BJP has to solve.
Ajit Pawar is still may be an asset.
4.0 SS(EK)—situation is similar to NCP ( AP ) to some extent—but
ES will stick to BJP, with his followers.
4.0 Possibly, BJP , SS(EK) , NCP (AP) ++ some minor parties will remain
as MY, and fight election. Eknath already asked for 100 seats, where as he is
having 38 winners with him. He should tone down his number to 50 , AP—55, and
balance BJP ++
5.0 I predict--- as on today- BJP++ MAY GET MAXIMUM 120 SEATS OUT OF 288 SEATS. BJP 70, SS(EK) 20, NC(AP) 20 and others 10. That is all.
MAHARASHTRIANS didn’t like breaking of SS, and NCP by BJP. This manipulation
made BJP (MODI—SHAH) unpopular.
145 IS REQUIRED TO FORM GOVERNMENT. MVA MOST LIKELY WILL
ACHIEVE THAT. UDDHAV will be CM.
6.0 Additional weakness of BJP is they don’t have a popular
CM face now in Maharashtra. In my opinion, MOTA BHAI’S
decision compromised BJP’S popularity
in MAHARASHTRA (unintentional), and
political career of DEVENDRA FADNABIS.
D. CONGRESS ALSO HAS PROBLEMS.
1.0 Leaders’ Demand:
Sixteen senior Maharashtra Congress leaders want Varsha Gaikwad, the Mumbai
unit chief, to be replaced for party strengthening.
Complaints Against Gaikwad: Recently won the Mumbai North
Central Lok Sabha seat.
Leaders feel she lacks time for organizational work and
disagree with her working style.
Bhushan Patil’s claim: The Mumbai North Lok Sabha candidate
received no help from the city party unit.
Letter to Congress Leadership: Leaders seek discussion on
rejuvenating the party in Mumbai before assembly elections and overdue civic
polls.
Signatories: Prominent leaders, including Chandrakant
Handore, Janardhan Chandurkar, and Naseem Khan, signed the letter.
Protest Incident: Gaikwad’s absence during a UGC-NET exam
chaos protest led to a separate suburban protest.
City Unit Head’s Performance: Gaikwad hasn’t significantly
energized the party cadre in her 13 months as the city unit head.
Upcoming Meeting: Maharashtra-related meeting scheduled in
Delhi.
Past Elections: Congress won only 4 out of 36 seats in the
2019 Maharashtra assembly polls and secured 1 out of 2 contested seats in the
recent Lok Sabha elections in Mumbai.
E. WHAT EMERGE:-
1.0 Senior BJP leader and Union Minister Bhupender Yadav has
been appointed as the in charge for Maharashtra while Union Minister Ashwini
Vaishnaw will be the co-in charge for the state, according to a statement
issued by the party. Are they selected to be SCAPEGOATS for the performance
anticipated to fail, whereas MOTA BHAI did
the UNDOING in Maharashtra in the past??
2.0 The only hope for BJP is Senior Power is QUITE OLD,…. And his daughter is not that influential, and not an adequate alternative!! Also—INC Maharashtra has internal fissures.
Can MY exploit these conditions to
get 25 more seats, hitting the TARGET??
Reference:-
ANALYSIS & OPINION IS BLOGGER’S.
IMAGE:-- GOOGLE
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