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BUDGET 2025 AT A GLANCE||| SOME KEY PROVISIONS

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  BUDGET 2025 AT A GLANCE SOME KEY PROVISIONS SARASIJ MAJUMDER   1.       10,000 additional seats to be inculcated in Medical Institutes in one year; 75,000 additional   medical seats will be created in next 5 years. 2.       100 GW target for Nuclear Power Generation by 2047. 3.       40,000 new houses will be added under Swayam Housing scheme. 4.       50 New Tourists’ destination will be developed by next year . 5.       A Maritime Development Fund with a corpus of ₹ 25,000 crore to be set up, with up to 49 per cent contribution by the Government, and the balance from ports and private sector. 6.       Atal Tinkering Labs (ATL) : 50,000 such labs are to be set up in government schools in 5 years. This is a part of Atal Innovation Mission (AIM). Comment: In my opinion, t...
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MAHARASHTRA ELECTION -25

 

:MAHARASHTRA:

ASSEMBLY ELECTION

PAST ANALYSIS|| FORECAST

SARASIJ MAJUMDER

 

 


A. VOTE SHARE: PARLIAMENTARY ELECTION

MARATHAS -BJP+ : 46%     INC+ : 39%

OBCs -             BJP+ : 50%    INC+ : 39%

FCs -                BJP+ : 58%       INC+ : 38%

SCs -                BJP+ : 35%        INC+ : 46%

Muslims voted one sided for INC+ as per CSDS Post Poll Survey.

Overall, INC+ got 43.71% vote share while BJP+ 43.55% vote share.

Looking at the current situation of Maharashtra Assembly, the 'Mahayuti'  (MY) alliance has a total of 203 seats, including 103 seats of BJP, 40 seats of Ajit Pawar's NCP, 38 seats of Shinde faction's Shiv Sena. 14 independents along with five other parties are also with it.

On the other hand, the MAHA VIKASH AGADHI  (MVA)has a total of 71 seats, in which Congress has 37 seats, Uddhav faction's Shiv Sena has 16 seats and Sharad Pawar's faction's NCP has 12 seats.

Even if Ajit faction breaks away from BJP, in the current situation, BJP's coalition government will continue in Maharashtra.

BJP is worried about the elections to be held in October. BJP may suffer losses here because its position in Maharashtra has weakened after the Lok Sabha elections.

B. SHIV SENA (SS)—TWO FACTIONS

Presently it is divided. Uddhav controls one faction, and Shinde controls another faction. BJP ( read AS with support of Modi) split it, with the hope to bring curtains t political career of UT. It didn’t happen. Present Parliament election result proves that he survived in alliance with NCP (SP), and INC.

Symbol and Split:

  • After the 2022 split, the Election Commission gave the Shiv Sena name and original “bow and arrow” symbol to the faction led by Eknath Shinde.
  • Shiv Sena (UBT) contested the Lok Sabha polls with a new symbol, the “flaming torch,”

Uddhav Thackeray won't align with BJP under the present leadership.

In the future, it might happen. Uddhav's issue isn't with BJP itself but with Modi and Shah. They've broken Shiv Sena, jailed Sanjay Raut, and Sena leaders felt harassed by investigating agencies.  Uddhav , and those who felt harassed, can’t forgive MODI--SHAH. This is the reality.

Even today, if BJP changes leadership, Uddhav would be more comfortable with BJP than Congress. The reason is simple: Ideologies shape party and  people. Hindutva, an ideology promoted by Balasaheb Thackeray (Uddhav's father), resonates with Uddhav. Balasaheb was called Hindu Hridaysamrat, so Uddhav naturally aligns more with BJP who more or less shares the same ideology.

I don’t think both faction of SHIVSENA can be united, in the near future. They will remain separated and compete each other.

C. DUE ASSEMBLY ELECTION:

1.0 It is more or less obvious that MY will lose, if we forecast on the basis of Lok Sabha performance. This is very much realised by Maharashtrian  leaders  and MLAs of BJP, SS(EK)  and NCP(AP).

2.0 NCP(AP) will find it difficult, if not impossible to keep the winning candidates with him—particularly, when NCP(SP) opened the door. Those who will get ticket from Sharad Power, will change side. 100%. Those who will remain—may compete, but mostly will not win. As such—BJP may be looking for  means and ways to drop this broken party.  But, that may not be correct.

3.0 Ajit Pawar can surprise everyone in assembly elections. His party has several Influential & resource-rich MLAs. In Lok Sabha, Ajit Pawar did not have many influential candidates. But in assembly, he has.  Need useful evaluation by BJP.Just like Goa, candidates matter in Maharashtra too.

NDA's biggest defeat was in Vidarbha and Marathwada in Maharashtra where Ajit Pawar was not having influence. This problem BJP has to solve.

Ajit Pawar is still  may be an asset.

4.0 SS(EK)—situation is similar to NCP ( AP ) to some extent—but ES will stick to BJP, with his followers.

4.0 Possibly, BJP ,  SS(EK)  , NCP (AP) ++ some minor parties will remain as MY, and fight election. Eknath already asked for 100 seats, where as he is having 38 winners with him. He should tone down his number to 50 , AP—55, and balance BJP ++

5.0  I predict--- as on today- BJP++ MAY GET MAXIMUM 120 SEATS OUT OF 288 SEATS. BJP 70,  SS(EK) 20,   NC(AP) 20 and others 10. That is all. 

MAHARASHTRIANS didn’t like breaking of SS, and NCP by BJP. This manipulation made BJP (MODI—SHAH) unpopular.

145 IS REQUIRED TO FORM GOVERNMENT. MVA MOST LIKELY  WILL  ACHIEVE THAT. UDDHAV will be CM.

6.0 Additional weakness of BJP is they don’t have a popular CM face  now  in Maharashtra. In my opinion, MOTA BHAI’S decision  compromised BJP’S popularity in   MAHARASHTRA (unintentional), and political career of  DEVENDRA FADNABIS.

D. CONGRESS ALSO HAS PROBLEMS.

1.0  Leaders’ Demand: Sixteen senior Maharashtra Congress leaders want Varsha Gaikwad, the Mumbai unit chief, to be replaced for party strengthening.

Complaints Against Gaikwad: Recently won the Mumbai North Central Lok Sabha seat.

Leaders feel she lacks time for organizational work and disagree with her working  style.

Bhushan Patil’s claim: The Mumbai North Lok Sabha candidate received no help from the city party unit.

Letter to Congress Leadership: Leaders seek discussion on rejuvenating the party in Mumbai before assembly elections and overdue civic polls.

Signatories: Prominent leaders, including Chandrakant Handore, Janardhan Chandurkar, and Naseem Khan, signed the letter.

Protest Incident: Gaikwad’s absence during a UGC-NET exam chaos protest led to a separate suburban protest.

City Unit Head’s Performance: Gaikwad hasn’t significantly energized the party cadre in her 13 months as the city unit head.

Upcoming Meeting: Maharashtra-related meeting scheduled in Delhi.

Past Elections: Congress won only 4 out of 36 seats in the 2019 Maharashtra assembly polls and secured 1 out of 2 contested seats in the recent Lok Sabha elections in Mumbai.

E. WHAT EMERGE:-

1.0 Senior BJP leader and Union Minister Bhupender Yadav has been appointed as the in charge for Maharashtra while Union Minister Ashwini Vaishnaw will be the co-in charge for the state, according to a statement issued by the party. Are they selected to be SCAPEGOATS for the performance anticipated to fail, whereas MOTA BHAI did  the UNDOING in Maharashtra in the past??

2.0 The only hope for BJP is Senior Power is QUITE OLD,…. And his daughter is not that influential, and not an adequate alternative!! Also—INC Maharashtra has internal fissures. 

Can MY exploit these conditions to get 25 more seats, hitting the TARGET??

Reference:-

DATA: https://www.jagranjosh.com/general-knowledge/maharashtra-election-result-2024-check-maharashtra-lok-sabha-election-parliamentary-assembly-constituencies-results-at-results-eci-gov-in-1717423145-1

Review: https://www.businesstoday.in/india/story/maharashtra-assembly-election-2024-bjp-devendra-fadnavis-amit-shah-jp-nadda-ashwini-vaishnaw-bhupender-yadav-chandrashekhar-bawankule-chandrakant-patil-pankaja-munde-sudhir-mungantiwar-mahayuti-shiv-433773-2024-06-19

ANALYSIS & OPINION IS BLOGGER’S.

IMAGE:-- GOOGLE

 

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