ELECTION:HARYANA
‘JANADESH’ FAVOURS BJP
SARASIJ
MAJUMDER
Haryana
is a state adjacent to Delhi and is a small assembly of 90 seats. Legislative assembly elections are scheduled to be
held in Haryana on 5th October 2024 to elect all 90 members
of the Haryana Legislative Assembly.
Only
two political parties are significant. No 3rd major player. AAP couldn’t penetrate in
HARYANA politics so far, as they are not ‘Mufftkhors’.
INDI-ALLIANCE:
Currently
AAP has negligeable influence in the state but by PIGGYBACKING on Congress, it planned to increase its stronghold in seats
adjacent to Delhi and outer Delhi like Faridabad, urban Gurugram and portion of
Haryana that borders Delhi. The alliance would give AAP a comfortable entry
into Haryana state politics. It would
become extremely hard for Congress to snatch back these seats from AAP later.
INC understands that.
AAP alone doesn’t have more than 5% vote share in the entire
state. This poor alliance will not help INC in contest with BJP. AAP gets
support from some Jatt Sikhs living along
the Punjab-- Haryana border only. They may
vote for AAP under the influence of their community people voted for AAP in Punjab.
Rahul
Gandhi wanted Haryana Congress to contest the election under the INDI alliance
by allying with AAP. Several rounds of negotiations were held between both
parties in Rohtak to finalize seat sharing but the talks failed in the final
stages of negotiations. Congress initially didn’t want to allot more than 5
seats to AAP while AAP was demanding 15 seats from them. In the end Haryana Congress decided they would not
allocate a single seat to AAP. Present
political image of AAP also may be a factor.
AAP now is on
its own in Haryana.
BJP-NDA:
The
pressure of anti-incumbency against the current BJP government of Nayab Singh
Saini was released from the pressure cooker in the last Lok Sabha election
itself. The non Jatt people who voted against BJP in the Lok Sabha election
regret their decision and are eager to rectify it. So vote share of BJP is
going to increase when compared to Lok Sabha results of the state as the
traditional non Jatts who voted against BJP will be voting for the party in
large numbers in this assembly election.
OTHER PARTIES:
During
Lok Sabha election, INLD and JJP did not field their candidates. That helped
Congress to get all the Jatt votes and some of the floating Dalit votes. But
this time they are taking active participation in the election from day one. So
entry of AAP makes the election a pentagonal contest. BJP performs best in
multipolar election. Entry of AAP, as well as INLD, JJP, & INDEPENDENTS are going to harm Congress more than BJP.
WHAT EMERGE:
There
could be a hung assembly with JJP + Independents getting 10–12 seats and becoming
the Kingmakers.
JJP
is more anti-Congress than anti-BJP as they still they ask votes in the name of
TAO Devi Lal (a strong opponent of
Congress but a good friend of BJP).
Independents
may defect to congress if JJP isn’t able to convince them.
And
if they see BJP+JJP having more seats than the INC, they may defect to BJP/ NDA.
Their decision will be seen at that time what the overall Arithmetic is.
IN ALL
PROBABILITY—I WILL BET THAT BJP WILL BE ABLE TO FORM A GOVERNMENT IN HARYANA,
LEAD COULD BE THIN.
Reference:- INFORMATION & DATA|||TOI, HT, Swarajya, Amar Ujala; My individual survey.
ANALYSIS: BY BLOGGER.
Image:-- Google
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