BANGLADESH ELECTION DECODED
GLOBAL PERSPECTIVE
SARASIJ MAJUMDER
General
elections are scheduled to be held in Bangladesh on 7 January 2024
under the auspices of the 2024 Bangladesh Election Commission, the official body
responsible for ensuring free and fair elections in the country.
On December 27, Bangladesh Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina
presented the election manifesto of the Awami League (AL), charting out her
party’s SOCIO-ECONOMIC POLICY to be followed over the next five years. The
manifesto has made the creation of jobs its central theme, followed by
commitments to social security and good governance as the essential tenets of
its core political agenda, which will build a “Smart Bangladesh” by 2041.
PM Sheikh Hasina’s social and economic accomplishments over
the last decade and a half have been PHENOMENAL in Bangladesh’s history. The
state achieved fast economic growth, driven by large-scale infrastructure and energy
projects. The poverty has come down
significantly due to social security policy measures.
Under Sheikh Hasina’s tenure, Bangladesh has also negotiated
Islamic militancy and cross-border terrorism with an iron fist. Perhaps, her best
accomplishment is striking a balance between the GEO-POLITICS of India, China,
Japan, Russia and the US, thus allowing Bangladesh to remain un-aligned with a
win-win rapport with the major global powers.
Yet, all are not well
over the last two years. The economy has been under severe stress since June
2022 — partially due to Covid-19 and
the Ukraine-Russia
conflict, but also due to the gross mismanagement of the financial sector. To
put it plainly, Bangladesh Bank’s ineffective exchange rate and monetary policy
response to the global economic climate has meant that it’s foreign reserves
lost almost $20 billion over the last 24 months, while inflation has
remained high since early 2022.
A nationwide survey undertaken by the International
Republican Institute (IRI) observed that
the majority of Bangladeshis (50+ per cent) feel that the country is not
performing well, but popularity of Sheikh Hasina remains high (60+ per cent).
This has also compromised the political position of AL, providing momentum to the Bangladesh Nationalist
Party’s (BNP) political campaign. In addition, up until October 28, the BNP was
incrementally fuelling its political movement towards its one-point agenda that
it will only participate in the 12th national election if the prime minister
resigns and an interim or caretaker government is reinstalled to oversee the
polls. It appears over 40% Bangladeshis think BNP is right, and 25% favour to hold election under incumbent
Government.
AL and BNP could have cooperated to find a political
compromise that would result in an inclusive and participatory national
election.
Historic political animosity stemming from the assassination
of Bangladesh’s founding father Bangabandhu Sheikh Mujibur Rahman and a FAILED
assassination attempt on Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina during the BNP’s tenure
(2001-2006) resulted in complete mistrust between the two political dynasties
(the Sheikhs and the Zias) remains unresolvable. This has poisoned the political
ecosystem in BANGLADESH.
However, India has invested in several important mega
projects in Bangladesh. Continuity of present Government will serve India’s
interest. I will discuss those projects in another BLOG.
Muslim Fundamentalists prefer BNP. To counter this, AL appeases Islami Fundamentalists. Minorities are the resultant
victims.
Most of
the Hindu Bengalees are leaving now, even after overstaying 75 years from the
partition. They can’t trust AL anymore.
AL has become a
victim of POLITICAL EXPEDIENCY, and BANGLADESH is no more a SECULAR state.
The context that has made the upcoming national election
different is the conspicuous interest the West, led by the US, has shown. The
US has already issued visa restrictions and US Global Human Rights Sanctions have
targeted both security and political actors in Bangladesh. More importantly,
the US State Department has been vocal about its desire to see a free, fair and
peaceful national election in 2024. But the underlying motivation that has
ignited US interest in Bangladeshi politics is an attempt to force this S-E Asian country to become a
puppet of USA. China, and India is resisting that.
This, in other words, is TERRORISM by USA applied on
BANGLADESH, and how Madam Hasina handles this, is to be seen.
PM Sheikh Hasina’s
steadfast commitment to a neutral foreign policy with respect to China, India
and the US has made her a difficult ally for all of them.
On the top of it –BNP declared to boycott election. May be
under advice of a Super Power. A break out faction of BNP—under the name of
TRINOMUL BNP is fighting election.
Possibility:-Election,
boycotted by Opposition, and marred by Violence—may not be accepted by USA
aligned WEST, and USA may impose “ECONOMIC SANCTION”. In such scenario—How
Madam Hasina will steer the country, even if she gains mandate ---what China
will do—and INDIA will react--- are all matters of deep analysis.
I will come with that
part—after election, and Western Reaction gets frozen.
Source:-
1.0 Dainik ITTEFAQ.—Bengali daily, published from DACCA.
2.0 https://www.dhakatribune.com/---
English (E-NEWS PAPER)
3.0 Election Manifesto of AL
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