BANGLADESH ELECTION DECODED

GLOBAL PERSPECTIVE

SARASIJ MAJUMDER

General elections are scheduled to be held in Bangladesh on 7 January 2024 under the auspices of the 2024 Bangladesh Election Commission, the official body responsible for ensuring free and fair elections in the country.

On December 27, Bangladesh Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina presented the election manifesto of the Awami League (AL), charting out her party’s SOCIO-ECONOMIC POLICY to be followed over the next five years. The manifesto has made the creation of jobs its central theme, followed by commitments to social security and good governance as the essential tenets of its core political agenda, which will build a “Smart Bangladesh” by 2041.

PM Sheikh Hasina’s social and economic accomplishments over the last decade and a half have been PHENOMENAL in Bangladesh’s history. The state achieved fast economic growth, driven by  large-scale infrastructure and energy projects. The   poverty has come down significantly due to social security policy measures.

Under Sheikh Hasina’s tenure, Bangladesh has also negotiated Islamic militancy and cross-border terrorism with an iron fist. Perhaps, her best accomplishment is striking a balance between the GEO-POLITICS of India, China, Japan, Russia and the US, thus allowing Bangladesh to remain un-aligned with a win-win rapport with the major global powers.

Yet, all  are not well over the last two years. The economy has been under severe stress since June 2022 — partially due to  Covid-19 and the Ukraine-Russia conflict, but also due to the gross mismanagement of the financial sector. To put it plainly, Bangladesh Bank’s ineffective exchange rate and monetary policy response to the global economic climate has meant that it’s foreign reserves lost almost $20 billion over the last 24 months, while inflation has remained high since early  2022.

A nationwide survey undertaken by the International Republican Institute (IRI) observed  that the majority of Bangladeshis (50+ per cent) feel that the country is not performing well, but popularity of Sheikh  Hasina remains high (60+ per cent).

This has also compromised the political position of AL, providing  momentum to the Bangladesh Nationalist Party’s (BNP) political campaign. In addition, up until October 28, the BNP was incrementally fuelling its political movement towards its one-point agenda that it will only participate in the 12th national election if the prime minister resigns and an interim or caretaker government is reinstalled to oversee the polls. It appears over 40% Bangladeshis think BNP is right, and 25%  favour to hold election under incumbent Government.

AL and BNP could have cooperated to find a political compromise that would result in an inclusive and participatory national election.

Historic political animosity stemming from the assassination of Bangladesh’s founding father Bangabandhu Sheikh Mujibur Rahman and a FAILED assassination attempt on Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina during the BNP’s tenure (2001-2006) resulted in complete mistrust between the two political dynasties (the Sheikhs and the Zias) remains unresolvable. This has poisoned the political ecosystem in BANGLADESH.

However, India has invested in several important mega projects in Bangladesh. Continuity of present Government will serve India’s interest. I will discuss those projects in another BLOG.

Muslim Fundamentalists prefer BNP. To counter this,  AL appeases Islami Fundamentalists. Minorities are the resultant victims.

Most of the Hindu Bengalees are leaving now, even after overstaying 75 years from the partition. They can’t trust AL anymore.

AL  has become a victim of POLITICAL EXPEDIENCY, and BANGLADESH is no more a SECULAR state.

The context that has made the upcoming national election different is the conspicuous interest the West, led by the US, has shown. The US has already issued visa restrictions and US Global Human Rights Sanctions have targeted both security and political actors in Bangladesh. More importantly, the US State Department has been vocal about its desire to see a free, fair and peaceful national election in 2024. But the underlying motivation that has ignited US interest in Bangladeshi politics is an attempt to  force this S-E Asian country to become a puppet of USA. China, and India is resisting that.

This, in other words, is TERRORISM by USA applied on BANGLADESH, and how Madam Hasina handles this, is to be seen.

 PM Sheikh Hasina’s steadfast commitment to a neutral foreign policy with respect to China, India and the US has made her a difficult ally for all of them.

On the top of it –BNP declared to boycott election. May be under advice of a Super Power. A break out faction of BNP—under the name of TRINOMUL BNP is fighting election.

Possibility:-Election, boycotted by Opposition, and marred by Violence—may not be accepted by USA aligned WEST, and USA may impose “ECONOMIC SANCTION”. In such scenario—How Madam Hasina will steer the country, even if she gains mandate ---what China will do—and INDIA will react--- are all matters of deep analysis.

I will come with that part—after election, and Western Reaction gets frozen.

 

Source:-

1.0 Dainik  ITTEFAQ.—Bengali daily,  published from DACCA.

2.0 https://www.dhakatribune.com/--- English (E-NEWS PAPER)

3.0 Election Manifesto of AL