J & K ELECTION

 

ELECTION IN J&K

A POLITICAL ANALYSIS

SARASIJ MAJUMDER

NC + INC +PDP

  • National Conference has promised to restore Article 370 if they come to power though constitutionally that is not possible. Legislation ratified that, and review in SC agreed with that. It is now fool-proof.
  • Senior Congress leader Ghulam Nabi Azad said that the Congress never demanded a reversal of the 5 August 2019 decision to revoke the special status of J&K. He also praised the administration of L-G Manoj Sinha, saying he “has done a very good job”.
  • This can be a big boost to BJP’s campaign and trouble for Congress.
  • Or congress is overconfident of not getting harmed by NC’s stance on article 370 abrogation because of BJP’s defeat in Ayodhya despite Ram Mandir ?
  • Article 370 abrogation has been as important and emotional issue as Ram Mandir for Indians.
  • In their brief press briefing earlier this week, on their first visit to J&K after polls were announced, Congress chief Kharge and parliamentary LoP Rahul Gandhi betrayed the tight-lipped approach and jitters expected in the run-up to the J&K elections that start Sep 18.
  • Rahul’s casual comment that Congress had expected statehood would be restored before elections was no passing remark.
  • But in the last 10 years since the last Assembly polls, what elections mean, and what J&K reclaiming statehood can mean, have changed.

BJP'S KEY PROMISES AND PLANS FOR JAMMU AND KASHMIR

Agriculture

  • Provide ₹10,000 to the farmers of the state under PM Kisan Samman Nidhi.
  • Reduce electricity rates for agricultural activities by 50%.

Employment

  • Generate 5 lakh employment opportunities for the youth.
  • Ensure a fair and just recruitment process.

Education

  • Under the Pragati Shiksha Yojana, provide college students with a travel allowance of ₹ 3000/- p.m.
  • Add 1,000 new seats in medical colleges to improve the education system.

Social Welfare

  • Under the Maa Samman Yojana, the senior-most woman in every household will be given ₹18,000 per year.
  • Ujjwala beneficiaries will receive two free cylinders every year.
  • Through the Atal Housing Scheme, land will be allotted free of cost to landless beneficiaries.
  • Old age, widow, and disability pensions will be increased three times.

Infrastructure

  • Complete all important tunnel projects.
  • Construct 10,000 km of new rural roads.
  • Initiate metro services in Jammu and Srinagar.
  • Rebuild and renovate Hindu temples and religious places.

 Healthcare

  • Ayushman Bharat Sehat Yojana will provide an additional ₹2 lakh in healthcare coverage on top of the ₹5 lakh already provided.

Rehabilitation

  • Speed up the rehabilitation process for displaced people.

Tourism

  • Transform Jammu and Kashmir from a "terrorist hotspot to a tourist spot."

Jammu and Kashmir Assembly Elections

Jammu and Kashmir has 90 assembly constituencies, with 7 seats reserved for Scheduled Castes (SCs) and 9 for Scheduled Tribes (STs).Out of the 90 seats, 43 seats are in Jammu division and 47 seats are in the Kashmir division. There shall be reservation of SETS for Kashmiri Pundits. This reformation was due.
ON ELECTIONS

  • Since 2014, both J&K’s state parties Mehbooba Mufti’s PDP and the Abdullahs’ NC stood whittled.
  • Neither, as of now, has the influence to single-handedly swing any meaningful haul of seats to the 90-seat assembly.
  • In 2014, PDP formed a government with BJP.
  • PDP is now losing footing fighting both NC and BJP.
  • NC has cadres, but sort of CLUELESS on its political front — its manifesto centers around the meaningless promise of restoration of Article 370.
  • When Sajad Lone and Altaf Bukhari don’t see major political damage in hobnobbing with BJP, it can be assumed NC here is barking up the wrong Chinar.
  • Coming to BJP, while it remains unpopular in the Valley it has retained its hold on Jammu.
  • UAPA-accused Engineer Rashid’s shock win in Baramulla LS seat (he took 15 of 18 Assembly segments) captures the deep disaffection among the people.

GOVERNOR’S ADDITIONAL POWER

  • In July, MHA amended J&K’s Transaction of Business Rules to enhance L-G’s powers, giving him final say in all matters related to police, public order, transfers and postings.
  • BJP reckons it’s going to be a win-win, whether it calls the shots in the new legislature or not.
  • But the L-G vs new government battles are likely. We need a very competent L-G there.

 

WHAT EMERGE:--

It is almost certain no single party will have a majority of 46 seats. No matter what the government gets cobbled together, it will be  a ‘J&K'  UT with a legislature.

FRAGILE ALLIANCES BUILT ON POLITICAL COMPULSIONS ARE THE ORDER OF THE ELECTION IN J&K.

HOWEVER,  BJP HAS VERY VERY THIN CHANCE, IF IT DOES VERY WELL IN JAMMU, AND BAG SOME SEATS IN KASMIR. 

BJP'S ELECTION MANIFESTO IS ATTRACTIVE.

 

SOURCES:-

1.0   All information are in public domain.

2.0   OPINION AND ANALISIS IS BY BLOGGER.

 

 

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