2024--BJP IN WEST BENGAL

SARASIJ MAJUMDER

The BJP made deep inroads in West Bengal in 2019 General election by winning 18 out of 42 Lok Sabha seats. Most of them came from North Bengal and the part also known as Jangal Mahal, which borders Jharkhand and Bihar. The party is very strong in these regions. Then in Assembly election the party increased its tally from 3 in 2016 to 77 in 2021. The party is looking to win big in next Lok Sabha election in Bengal.

Darjeeling

BJP has been winning this seat since 2009. They are strong here and will win this seat under any situation. BJP won this seat by a huge margin in 2019 due to support from Gorkhas. They got decisive lead in Gorkha dominated Assembly segments of Darjeeling, Kalim Pong, and Kurseong. Gorkhas promises are unfulfilled and BJP should look after them. The NOTABLE thing is—TMC influence is minimal.

Bongaoan

Cabinet minister (MoS) Shantanu Thakur is the MP from Bongaoan. He represents the Matua community who are demanding CAA from Modi - Shah. BJP led in 6 out of 7 Assembly segments in his constituency in 2021 Assembly election. This seat is a sure shot for BJP in LS 2024. Mr. Thakur, a Minister, is seeing to that.

Medinipur

This is the constituency of former Bengal BJP president Dilip Ghosh. Currently he is serving as National Vice President of BJP, and he has a history of defeating heavyweights using just his name. He is extremely popular here and his popularity factor will bring this seat for BJP in LS 2024.

Purulia

This was once a bastion of Maoist but now it is a Hindutva stronghold of BJP. Jyotirmoy Singh Mahato is the MP of this constituency. He is an excellent politician and will bring this seat in BJP kitty for 2024. BJP won 5 out of 6 seats falling under this Lok Sabha constituency in 2021 Assembly election.

Alipurduar

This is the constituency of Cabinet minister (MoS) John Barla. This constituency is dominated by Tribals and RSS has created a strong support for BJP. He has supported the tea plantation workers working here. BJP clean swept 7 off 7 seats during Assembly election in his constituency. BJP will win this seat in 2024.

Ranaghat

This seat has around 40% Matua population who all relies on CAA. BJP won 6 out of 7 seats in 2021. Demographics is in favour of BJP and will go with BJP in 2024.

 

 

Kanthi

Home of Leader of Opposition (Lop) Shuvendu Adhikari. BJP relied on Adhikari name here during VS election and won 4 out of 7 Assembly seats. BJP has a solid organization here and Leaders are working hard and hoping for a better result. BJP is sure to win.

Krishna Nagar

Mahua Moitra's constituency, has around 40% Muslims which contributed for her winning last time. Even with divided Hindu votes BJP gave a tough fight and restricted Moitra's win to 63K + margin. BJP's prospect in adjoining constituency Ranaghat will help them here.  And my study and information suggest—Mahuaji has become unpopular here. With a good strategy, proper candidate, and booth control, BJP may win this seat. (?)

Cooch Behar

Gorkhas and Rajbangshis want their identity to be acknowledged thus the demand is for Koch - Kamtapur - Gorkhaland. BJP won here last time after they sympathized with the cause. With Gorkhas and Rajbangshis being the majority, BJP will win this seat. Amit Shah is personally tracking this seat.

Bankura

BJP did better in 2021 Assembly election in this Lok Sabha segment. They won 4 out of 7 seats and building a strong organization. Like Cooch Behar this seat is also under Amit Shah radar. Possibility—BJP wins.

Asansol

BJP MP Babul Supriyo switched sides to TMC early this year and TMC won this seat for the first time in by poll. This is one of the safest seats for BJP in West of West Bengal. They can win this even without Babul in 2024 as they have Yash Dasgupta who will fill his place.

Jayanagar

Presently TMC is winner. Tripura MP and MoS Pratima Bhoumik is working on the organization here. Amit Shah has officially taken control here. Sufficient time is there and if they go by plan, will win this seat in the upcoming election.

Arambagh

BJP lost this seat narrowly to TMC in last election. Vidhan Sabha wise performed well by winning 4 out of 6 seats. They have a good hold here and may win this seat with a decent candidate. (?)

Maldaha Uttar

BJP's Khagen Murmu won this seat last time. This seat has over 50% Hindu population and almost all backed him. Probably the only Adivasi MP in the present Lok Sabha who won on an Unreserved seat. History is likely to repeat.

 

 

Dum Dum

BJP lost this seat by a thin margin of 13K + to TMC last time. This was the first seat the party won in Bengal.  However—this region has CPI(M) influence. Three-way competition is expected. BJP is confident of winning it this time.

Hooghly

BJP is a very strong force here and won by a very big margin in 2019. They will surely win it again in 2024 with a better margin.

Bishnupur

BJP is holding this seat. Hindu majority area. BJP shall win.

Currently, the BJP is having high chances in these 17 seats and they should keep these seats for target in 2024 and focus highly on them. There are still more seats where the party can win if they work on them. Will update this answer in upcoming months.

CONGRESS may win 2(TWO) seats—and CPI(M)--- NIL. As of now, TMC is also sure on 17 seats. 6 seats will have a fight.

One thing is for sure---- I.N.D.I.A. will have negative influence on TMC in West Bengal.

And TMC’s safe HAVEN is Minority Muslim Votes.