SHEIKH HASINA PLAYED ALL SIDES
DID
SHE TRIPPLE CROSSED AND LOST???
St. MARTIN’S ISLAND- BANGLADESH-2
SARASIJ MAJUMDER
AN ESCHURAIAN DELTA AREA
OF Eastern West Bengal, Bangladesh AND Western Part Of Myanmar is expected to naturally have a lot of NATURAL
GAS, ASSOCIATED CONDENSATE, AND CRUDE under the sea bed. This is being discovered
now in recent years after exploration started in INDIA, and Bangladesh.
Myanmar is already exporting Gas to China, from its West
Coast.
Scientists have found about 30 billion
tons of oil deposits in the Bay of Bengal. This is two-and-a-half times
the 13 billion tons of deposits that Iraq has, and almost as much as Saudi
Arabia's, one of the world's largest oil exporters. { Some information is available in
ref.5 , 6, & 7}
The exploration is being led by an energy hungry China with
its influence in the region, deep pockets, and technical know-how. China
already has kicked off some off-shore projects and is importing gas all the way
to Kunming in its Yunnan province from the sea bed west of Myanmar.
But the major deposits of gas are estimated to be under
Bangladeshi territorial waters. Bangladesh in May 2024 called an international
tender for exploration of oil and gas at 24 blocks in the Bay of Bengal. ONGC,
CNOOC, and EXXON all applied. Sept 9, 23 was cut off for bids.
On July 11, 24, Sheik
Hasina signed a "Comprehensive Strategic Cooperative Partnership." with China. Their MoU said they "pledged
to fight external interference and boost economic cooperation." We know
this is neither good for India nor the US. She was playing all sides. (REF:-1)
It is my educated guess that China would have agreed to help
her retain power in exchange for the 24 blocks of gas awarded to CNOOC instead
of India's ONGC or US's ExxonMobil. It would have also asked to use the St.
Martin's island as its base for such "civilian" exploration purpose.
Something went wrong. In an unusual move, Bangladesh Prime Minister
Sheikh Hasina cut short her trip to Beijing this week and returned to Dhaka,
indicating that the desired objective was not achieved from the visit. (REF:2).
St. Martin Island, aka Daruchini Dweep, is a very strategic island in its
location overlooking the Malacca Straits, right next to Myanmar and controlling
entry into strategic ports in north Bay of Bengal that China may use in the
future either in Myanmar or Bangladesh.
Let aside USA, even INDIA
can’t afford the following:
1.0 China taking control of majority of exploration for gas
under Bangladesh’s sea bed.
2.0 China taking control of St. Martin Island in the pretext
of civilian, exploration, and Construction purpose.
3.0 China then gaining foothold in Bay of Bengal and Straits
of Malacca.
Whatever
happened in Bangladesh was destined to happen due to big power competition and
with Hasina trying to play both India and China while antagonizing the US
completely. And at the same time Pakistan and China trying to prop up an
opposition regime using radical ISLAMISTS.
The USA is the Undisputed Master In Regime
Change. When the US is after her regime, she needed China, not India. At
the best India can do is try to counter China's offers. But, she made the
mistake of aligning with Beijing, which
was selling out the Island!. It was a bit too much for the USA. And for India, too. Fortunately—the deal WAS NOT
made!
But RISK CAN’T BE TAKEN.
The US simply took control of the student protests due to HC's
(US influenced?) ruling reinstating quotas in jobs that the government had
abolished in 2018 and was not in support of. Later, US puppet, Pakistan run Islamist network
funded also by China to work as a USA’s ground force.
I have posted two blogs, on the student protests, foreign impetus, and bad
decisions of Hasina. Links are furnished below. Any reader who missed it, and
interested to know, can read.
From India's perspective, it didn't have to play any
role in the regime change. But it has
played well within its limitations on the inevitable that had to happen. From
now it will play a part to ensure that an Islamist govt doesn't take control over Bangladesh, which is in both, India and US interests. India, through
economic and trade means, will ensure the stability of the moderate, western
educated regime likely to be propped up by the US. And it may be ready with
Hasina to be reinstated at a good opportunity into Bangladesh politics but this
time totally aligned to India and US interests. In return, the US actions in
Bangladesh will mean India now doesn't have to worry about Chinese takeover of
off shore gas fields, Chinese base on a strategic island in Bay of Bengal
overlooking Andamans, and the Chinese influence in Myanmar will be weakened.
Win-Win situation for two Quad partner states. As for the uncontrollable
anti-India US deep state, well that's a concern for India in the long run,
especially in the north east, but Mr. Biswa will work out something. Time is
there.
BUT—HORATIO, USA MAY HAVE
ANOTHER MORE SINISTER PLAN—SHEIKH HASINA STATED THAT A FEW TIMES.
NOTE:- BLOGGER is AN OFFSHORE (IN SEA) OIL, & GAS EXPERT with40 years’
experience, and particularly in S/SEA Engineering, SPM & Pipelines. And still have some connections with OVL, ONGC, OIL, IOC & Petro Bangla, companies involved in the
bidding for EXPLORATION in Bay Of Bengal.
3.0 https://www.blogger.com/blog/post/edit/9116460033038176660/8114674311365732558
4.0 https://www.blogger.com/blog/post/edit/9116460033038176660/5310950071159451113
6.0 https://asia.nikkei.com/Business/Energy/Bangladesh-offers-win-win-deals-for-offshore-gas-exploration
7. https://warontherocks.com/2022/06/the-bay-of-bengal-could-be-the-key-to-a-free-and-open-indo-pacific/
Image:-- Google.
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